Bullet point summary by AI
- Matt Olson has a rare chance to challenge Shohei Ohtani for the NL MVP lead during the high-stakes Braves-Dodgers series in Los Angeles this weekend.
- Olson leads the league in home runs and fWAR, while Ohtani dominates as the Cy Young favorite despite a slightly uncharacteristic start at the plate.
- Dethroning a two-way unicorn requires near-perfection, making this head-to-head matchup a critical turning point for MVP voters and season momentum.
They might’ve ranked ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers in FanSided’s latest power rankings, but the Atlanta Braves beating Los Angeles in this weekend’s series at Dodger Stadium would be considered an upset. As good as the Braves are, the Dodgers are back-to-back defending champions for a reason. What if I told you there’s a potential for a bigger upset in play here, though?
Shohei Ohtani is universally considered the best player in the sport right now, and for good reason. What he does, nobody has been able to do in the sport’s history. He’s won four of the last five MVP awards he’s been up for as a result of his two-way dominance. Well, with how well Matt Olson has played, Ohtani’s hold on the MVP award might not be as strong as anyone expected. In fact, Olson outperforming Ohtani this weekend might just make him the NL MVP favorite, if he isn’t there already.
Matt Olson is having an MVP-caliber start to the season
Olson has always been a very good player, but he’s taken his game to new heights this season, slashing .301/.388/.671 with 13 home runs and 33 RBI. He leads the National League with those 13 home runs as well as doubles (15), runs (35), total bases (98) and wRC+ (185). He also leads the majors with 2.3 fWAR.
Olson has always been a consistently reliable slugger, but he’s been as good an all-around hitter as he’s ever been to begin this season. I mean, he’s hitting home runs at a higher rate this season than he did in his 54-home run year back in 2023, and he’s striking out less than he has in a season since 2021. It’s been really fun to watch.
Olson is the driving force behind the Braves’ rebound to relevance. He’s always a lock to hit home runs, play elite defense, and play all 162 games, but if he’s able to hit for average too, he might put up a truly absurd stat line come season’s end.
Shohei Ohtani hasn’t been hitting at an Ohtani level
Ohtani has been able to win back-to-back MVPs since signing with the Dodgers despite throwing a total of 47 innings in those seasons, all of which came in 2025. Now, Ohtani impressed in his 14 starts, but 47 innings isn’t going to win you an MVP award. Ohtani won both of those MVP awards because of what he did at the plate.
Ohtani slashed .296/.391/.634 in those two seasons, averaging 54.5 home runs, 116 RBI and 39 stolen bases. He was the best hitter in the National League, making the award an easy pick. This season, though, Olson has been the best hitter in the NL thus far, and Ohtani is off to an uncharacteristically slow start considering his standards.
As a hitter, he’s slashing .248/.389/.442 with six home runs and 15 RBI. He has a 129 wRC+, which if the season ended today, would be his worst mark since the shortened 2020 season. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been good as a hitter, but Ohtani had a 172 wRC+ in 2025. He’s never had a wRC+ lower than 142 in a single season since 2020. His 129 wRC+ has him tied for 49th with Kazuma Okamoto of the Toronto Blue Jays. He’s been good, but not great, and certainly not MVP-worthy as a hitter.
A down year from Ohtani as a hitter keeps the door open ever so slightly for Olson to break through, but with all of that being said, Ohtani’s presence is impossible to ignore. As good as Olson has been, dethroning Ohtani in the MVP race is going to be easier said than done because of who Ohtani is as a player.
Matt Olson faces near impossible task in MVP chase
To win the MVP award over Ohtani, Olson is going to have to have a near-perfect season. He’s done so thus far, leading the NL in so many vital statistical categories, but Ohtani feels inevitable because he does something nobody else does: hit and pitch.
Ohtani is two superstars morphed into one. His numbers as a hitter might seem pedestrian, but a 129 wRC+ is quite good for anyone not named Ohtani and a few others. As a pitcher, he has a 0.97 ERA in six starts and 37 innings of work. He has allowed a total of six runs (four earned) in 37 innings, striking out 42 batters and issuing only nine walks. Ohtani is the NL Cy Young favorite right now, as he leads the majors in ERA and has gone at least six innings each time he’s taken the mound.
To sum up, Ohtani is a top 50 hitter, and as a pitcher, you can argue nobody has been better. Sure, Olson has been a better hitter than Ohtani, but is the gap wide enough to discount what Ohtani has done as a pitcher? Even if you say Olson has been a better hitter than Ohtani has been a pitcher, you have to take Ohtani’s hitting into account, too. It also feels like Ohtani hasn’t even hit his stride as a hitter yet.
There’s a reason that the only person to dethrone Ohtani in the last five years of MVP races is Aaron Judge, and that happened when he literally set the AL record in home runs (62). Another big reason could very well make Olson the MVP favorite, and he’d deserve every bit of that recognition. Olson keeping up this pace all season, though, is what stands in his way of capturing the MVP award, and that’s a credit to the unicorn that Shohei Ohtani is.
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