Bracket, schedule, teams on the March Madness bubble

For many people, March is the time when spring begins to bloom. It’s a time for new beginnings and outdoor excursions. For others, March means one thing — college basketball is taking over.

Even for the casual sports fan who doesn’t pay much mind to college hoops throughout the winter, this is the time of year when it becomes impossible to ignore. Flip on ESPN at any time for almost a two-week stretch, and odds are that there’ll be a conference tournament game on. Ratcheting up the intensity is the fact that every game is win-or-go-home, and for many teams, their entire season is on the line as they try to reach the NCAA Tournament.

Championship Week rules, and the best part is that it has something for everyone. From tiny, one-bid leagues where anything can happen, to the major conferences where most of the best teams in the country are on display, this is an all-you-can-eat college basketball buffet that can’t be topped.

The ACC Tournament has long been one of the premier events to watch. Kids that grew up in the South can regale you with tales of their teacher wheeling in an old TV to watch the afternoon quarterfinal matchups, and even in this era of conference expansion, the tournament is endlessly compelling.

This year is no different. Fifteen of the 18 ACC teams have qualified to play the single-elimination tournament in Charlotte, with the top four seeds earning double byes and seeds 5-8 already safely in the second round. And though the temptation in events like this is to pick the chalk, NC State reminded us two years ago when they rolled off five straight wins as a 10-seed that anything can happen.

With that in mind, we’re giving you everything you need to get up to speed before the ACC Tournament begins. We have the bracket, the TV schedule and a summary of each team, including what their NCAA Tournament prospects look like heading into this week’s action and what chance they have of claiming the automatic bid.

ACC Tournament bracket

First Round: Tuesday, March 10

• No. 12 Virginia Tech vs. No. 13 Wake Forest, 2 p.m. EST, ACC Network
• No. 10 Stanford vs. No. 15 Pitt, 4:30 p.m. EST, ACC Network
• No. 11 SMU vs. No. 14 Syracuse, 7 p.m., ACC Network

Second Round: Wednesday, March 11

• No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 9 Cal, noon EST, ESPN
• No. 5 Clemson vs. Virginia Tech/Wake Forest winner, 2:30 p.m. EST, ESPN
• No. 7 NC State vs. Stanford/Pitt winner, 7 p.m. EST, ESPN2/ESPNU
• No. 6 Louisville vs. SMU/Syracuse winner, 9:30 p.m., EST, ESPN2/ESPNU

Quarterfinals: Thursday, March 12

• No. 1 Duke vs. Florida State/Cal winner, noon, EST, ESPN/ESPN2
• No. 4 UNC vs. Clemson/VT/Wake, 2:30 p.m. EST, ESPN/ESPN2
• No. 2 Virginia vs. NC State/Stanford/Pitt, 7 p.m., EST, ESPN/ESPN2
• No. 3 Miami vs. Louisville/SMU/Syracuse, 9:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN2

Semifinals: Friday, March 13

• TBA vs. TBA, 7 p.m. EST, ESPN/ESPN2
  TBA vs. TBA, 9:30 p.m. EST, ESPN/ESPN

Championship: Saturday, March 15

• TBA vs. TBA, 8:30 p.m. EST, ESPN/ESPN

Tier ranking the ACC Tournament field

Championship contenders

Duke Blue Devils

Duke enters the ACC Tournament as the No. 1 team in the nation, and a lock to be one of the four 1-seeds on Selection Sunday. Cutting down the nets in Charlotte would virtually guarantee they get the overall top seed, and with this roster and the nation’s top-ranked defense, there’s a great chance they’ll do it. Cameron Boozer has followed in Cooper Flagg’s footsteps in putting together a Naismith Award kind of season as a freshman, but he’s had plenty of help. With guys like Isaiah Evans, the rim-protecting Patrick Ngongba and senior glue guy Maliq Brown, the Blue Devils are big favorites to win their 24th ACC Tournament championship. After that, they’ll have a great chance to improve upon last year’s Final Four heartbreak.

What could stop Duke from cutting down the nets? Probably not Texas Tech or North Carolina, the only two teams to beat them this year. The Red Raiders lost their best player, JT Toppin, for the season, while the same fate recently befell UNC’s Caleb Wilson. The Blue Devils do have some injury concerns of their own, though, as Ngongba and the sweet-shooting Caleb Foster are dealing with injuries of their own.

Virginia Cavaliers

For anyone that hasn’t watched Virginia since Ryan Odom took over this year (yes, the same Ryan Odom who upset Virginia as the coach of 16-seeded UMBC in 2018), allow me to tell you that this is not your father’s Cavaliers. Gone are the grind-it-out days of Tony Bennett and in is a team that isn’t afraid to score some points. UVA still has a tremendous defense, but they play with a bit more pace than in years past, and they win by keeping the ball moving, finding open looks from outside and crashing the offensive glass.

Dynamic freshmen Thijs De Ridder and Chance Mallory have led the way, but the transfer portal has also worked wonders for the Cavs. Former Kentucky and Kansas State Wildcat Ugonna Onyenso is among the national leaders in blocked shots, while former BYU point guard Dallin Hall leads the team in assists and Malik Thomas is second on the team in points after scoring over 19 a game last year for San Francisco. Virginia doesn’t have the same amount of eye-catching wins as the Tar Heels, but their 27-4 record to date should be enough to get them a 4-seed at minimum on Selection Sunday. If they can win three straight and avenge a loss to Duke or Carolina in the title game, a 3-seed is very realistic.

Miami Hurricanes

Of the teams in the contender tier, Miami is the biggest surprise, which is why Jai Lucas seems like a lock to win ACC Coach of the Year. Even with a loss to Louisville on Saturday, the Hurricanes still finished 13-5 in ACC play, and they’ve only lost by more than 10 points once this season, all the way back in November to probable 1-seed Florida. Two transfers are the biggest reason why, as Malik Reneau has been one of the best low-post scorers in the country, while Tre Donaldson has made a seamless transition from leading Michigan to the Sweet 16 last year to ranking third in the ACC in assists, while also raising his scoring average by more than five points per game.

Miami’s schedule didn’t include Duke this year, but they beat North Carolina and lost a close one at Virginia. They’ve also been warriors away from home, with seven road wins since the beginning of January. Joe Lunardi currently has Miami as an 8-seed, meaning they have more to gain than they do to lose this week. They’re safely in the field, but could really rise if they can string together two or three wins.

Louisville Cardinals

Louisville finished sixth in the conference and were coming off their third loss in four games just over a week ago, but they might be the most dangerous team outside of Duke in this bracket. They’re currently ranked 17th on KenPom, second-best in the ACC behind Duke, even though they have more than twice the losses of Virginia and they lost head-to-head matchups with the Cavs and Tar Heels. Why are they so highly thought of? They’re one of the most prolific 3-point-shooting teams in the country, they’re extremely good from the free throw line and they also protect the defensive glass. The Cardinals like to play with pace behind freshman Mikel Brown Jr. and senior Ryan Conwell, a duo which has a strong case to be called the best backcourt in the conference.

Louisville is athletic, they share the ball, and they spread the court so well with all their 3s that they shoot almost 60 percent from inside the arc due to all the open looks they create. They’re currently looking like a 6-seed for the Big Dance, but if they can translate all these good metrics into actual wins in Charlotte, they can jump up a seed line or two. Having a healthy Brown will be key, as he’s missed the last two games with a back injury.

Dark horse candidates

North Carolina Tar Heels

The Heels wrapped up an unbeaten home record with Tuesday’s win over Clemson, an impressive achievement considering they’ve been without superstar freshman Caleb Wilson since he broke his hand against Miami nearly a month ago. The hope was that Wilson would be able to return for the regular season finale at Cameron Indoor, but a broken thumb suffered in practice this week put an end not only to that hope, but to his Carolina career, as he’s considered a top-five pick in the NBA Draft.

The Heels have shown they can win without Wilson, but their ceiling is undeniably much lower without him, which is why they’ve dropped to our second tier. Seth Trimble has been phenomenal in his senior season, and Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar has given Hubert Davis a much-needed post presence. It also can’t be understated how important Zayden High has been after seeing his minutes rise following Wilson’s injury. The Heels have impressive blue-blood wins over Kansas, Kentucky and Duke this year, and they also handed Virginia their only home loss of the season. If Wilson was healthy, that strong resume should make the Heels a 5-seed at worst in the Big Dance, with the potential to move up to a 4 with a rubber match win over Duke in the semis or possibly even a 3 if they could have managed to run the table. Without him, the Heels could slip into 7-seed range if they get hammered by Duke again, or even worse, lose their first ACC Tournament game.

Florida State Seminoles

As a ridiculous a statement as this is, if Florida State could just remove the stretch from Thanksgiving to mid-January, their resume would be a thing of beauty. The senior-led team won 10 of their final 13 ACC games, and two of their three losses came by just three points. Alas, their 2-10 record through the holiday season torpedoed any real chance they have at making the NCAA Tournament. That run has a few real doozies, including two losses to Texas A&M and Georgia by a combined 70 points and a 44-point home loss to NC State that should be the real focus of governor Ron Desantis’ push to erase things from the state’s history textbooks.

As for the ACC Tournament, nobody is going to want to see the Seminoles because of how hot they’ve been. They also play at one of the fastest paces in the country, making them a taxing matchup in a one-game-every-day setting, and they shoot a ton of 3s. Sure, they’re not especially proficient at them, but when they do go in, watch out! They beat their second-round opponent Cal despite only shooting 6-28 from outside in late January, and they almost knocked off Duke, the team waiting for them next, behind a 14-30 long-range performance earlier in the month. Would wins over the Golden Bears and Blue Devils, combined with all their recent positive momentum, get the Seminoles into the at-large discussion? It’s possible.

NC State Wolfpack

NC State takes tremendous care of the ball, and they’re an outstanding shooting team. Why, then, has their season gone completely off the rails? It’s to the point that I can’t watch a Will Wade postgame press conference without fearing for the man’s mental health. State is 19-12, and they’ve followed a six-game conference winning steak by losing six of their last seven, either in heartbreaking fashion or by getting absolutely dominated. They choked away a home win over Miami by giving up an 8-0 run in the closing seconds, they lost to lowly Notre Dame in overtime and they got beaten by one at home against Stanford. They also lost to Lousville, Virginia and Duke by a combined 99 points! Tucked in there was an evisceration of North Carolina, proving that the Pack will never beat the allegations that the UNC game is their Super Bowl.

This team could use a few days off to catch their breath, because they have the talent to make some noise in March. Quadir Copeland is one of the most physical point guards in the country, and he leads the ACC with 6.8 assists per game. Ven-Allen Lubin, who transferred from UNC, is an efficiency machine down low. Paul McNeil shoots a high volume from outside, and he makes over 41 percent of them. The Wolfpack limped to the finish line two years ago, then got hot and won five straight ACC Tournament games and kept rolling all the way to the Final Four as an 11-seed. I’m not saying history will repeat itself, but I’m not counting it out, either. The Pack should make the tournament, but they may have to go through Dayton first.

Clemson Tigers

Over the years, Clemson has made a habit out of starting hot and then fizzling late in the season. They turned that on its head when they reached the Elite Eight a couple of years ago, but unfortunately for the Tigers, they’re back up to their old tricks again. Brad Brownell’s group was 16-3 and ranked 18th in the country in mid-January, but they finished the regular season with five losses in their final seven games. In their defense, they beat Louisville a week ago and kept it close on the road against Duke and North Carolina, but they also lost at home to Virginia Tech and Florida State, which is not something a serious team would do. They also only beat Georgia Tech by three at home on Saturday, and the Yellow Jackets are only allowed in Charlotte’s Spectrum Center this week if they buy their own tickets.

Clemson is a thoroughly average shooting team, with three guys who shoot about 36 percent from the outside but no one better. RJ Godfrey is a dynamic interior presence, and he went off on the Tar Heels for 22 points. He doesn’t have enough help offensively, though, even though the defense is pretty solid. The Tigers like to slow it down and muddy it up, which could frustrate some of the more talented teams in the tournament, but it’s not great that they peaked almost two months ago. Joey Brackets currently has them as an 8-seed, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them drop to a 10 if they shank it against Virginia Tech or Wake Forest in the quarters.

SMU Mustangs

This middle tier is mostly populated with teams that started hot and then hit a wall, and SMU is no exception. The Mustangs were 12-2 and riding high after hanging 97 points on UNC to open conference play, but they’ve been very beatable since, especially on the road, where they don’t have a single great win all season. Andy Enfield has five guys that shoot 37 percent or better from the 3-point line, but for some reason, his team is reluctant to let it fly. That’s holding them back, especially since their defense is the very definition of average.

Other than Cal and Stanford, both of whom are currently on the way wrong side of the bubble, no team in Charlotte has more at stake than SMU. They’re projected to be right on the cut line one way or another, meaning they really need to beat Syracuse and could use a win over Louisville in the quarters, too. They did beat the Cardinals almost a month ago at home, so it’s conceivable, especially if Boopie Miller can provide them with another 23-point, 9-assist performance like he did in that one.

Stanford Cardinal

It’s very unlikely that Stanford can insert themselves into the at-large picture, but the fact that they’ve won four straight games to earn their first back-to-back 20-win seasons in over a decade shouldn’t be overlooked. Things looked bleak after a 30-point home loss to Duke kicked off a five-game losing streak. Freshman Ebuka Okorie, the leading scorer in the ACC, has really stepped up, though.

As Okorie goes, so go the Cardinal. Stanford has only lost two games in which he scored 25 or more, and during their current four-game winning streak, he’s averaging over 23 per game. He’s also gotten some help from Benny Gealer, a rare four-year letterman with the same school, who’s moved into the starting lineup this year and been one of the most dangerous 3-point shooters in the conference. Stanford’s strategy is to take and make more 3s than their opponents, something they’ve done 23 times this year. They should have little trouble with Pitt, and they just won at NC State. That could set up a quarterfinal matchup with Virginia that could be very interesting, especially if Okorie can improve on his 5-20 shooting performance from the last time they met..

Not expecting much

Cal Golden Bears

Cal made a late push to get themselves into the NCAA Tournament conversation, but a loss at Wake Forest to fall to an even 9-9 in conference will likely be the penultimate nail in their coffin, with the final one being delivered by whoever sends them on a long flight back home from Charlotte this week. The Golden Bears are 21-11 overall, numbers that used to confer more respect from the committee, but they really could have used one more signature win.

Beating UCLA on a neutral floor earlier this season has aged pretty well, as has a win over a full-strength Carolina squad and a one-point victory at Miami. There are some rough losses to counteract these, though. Giving up 99 points earlier in the year to a Kansas State team that was so bad that Jerome Tang got himself fired for cause is a killer. Losing at Syracuse in double overtime would almost be forgivable if the Bears didn’t lose by 16 at home against lowly Pitt about two weeks later. If Cal can beat Florida State and then topple Duke in the quarters, they probably have to get in, but in the words of Chappell Roan, good luck, babe!

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