President Joe Biden this summer hammered out what appeared to be a legislative unicorn during a time of extreme division in Washington – a bipartisan measure to rebuild and repair the nation’s infrastructure, with a price tag of nearly $1 trillion.
That may prove to have been easier than what lies ahead. The president now faces a do-or-die series of votes on Capitol Hill that will determine the fate of his domestic agenda as well as the fiscal health of the nation. And it’s not just Republicans in Biden’s way. It’s members of his own party.
Democrats are trying to pass two big spending packages, representing the second and third legs of Biden’s three-legged-stool recovery plan after the massive COVID-19 relief bill signed into law earlier this year.
The first is the infrastructure plan, meant to fix the literal structure of the country, including roads, bridges, clean water pipes and broadband access. The second – now at about $3.5 trillion – would fund what Biden calls the human infrastructure side of healing the nation. That includes items such as child care subsidies, universal pre-K, paid family and medical leave, and educational and health care programs.
Political Cartoons on Joe Biden
The progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic Party have been feuding about the size and scope of the items. Progressives, led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal, Washington Democrat, worry that the $3.5 trillion package – which they already think is too small – will get scaled back further or killed entirely. They are now threatening to vote against the infrastructure plan, which was tentatively scheduled for a vote this Monday unless the bigger bill is voted on first.
The problem is that Democratic moderates, particularly two senators, are balking at the $3.5 trillion plan, wanting it trimmed down to a size they have yet to reveal. Both factions of the party are needed to approve both bills in the two chambers, where Democrats hold razor-thin majorities.
Enter Biden, who is known for his negotiating skills (he was the Obama administration’s point man when they needed GOP votes on critical matters, such as the “fiscal cliff” of 2012). The president held three separate meetings Wednesday at the White House – one with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, one with progressives and one with moderate Democrats.
They finished with no deal.
With the clock ticking, Pelosi and Schumer on Thursday said they had indeed made important progress, saying the House, Senate and White House had agreed on a “framework” of how to pay for the bigger budget package. They did not say the bill would total their goal of $3.5 trillion, would not detail what the pay-fors were, and would not commit to Monday as the date for the infrastructure vote – which would fail if the progressives follow through on their threat.
“It’s all good,” Pelosi told reporters Thursday. “I am confident we will pass both bills.” As for any delays, “it’s just that it’s writing bills,” she added. “It takes time, and you have to make decisions.”
They may not have much time. While the “deadline” for the infrastructure and human capital bills are artificial, set as a way to prod a famously slow-moving Congress into action, two fiscal issues are fast reaching critical deadlines.
The government is funded through Sept. 30; if Congress does not pass a new spending bill by then, the government will shut down. The Biden administration has already directed federal agencies to come up with a plan for that, though White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Thursday that was a typical reminder at times when the end of the fiscal year was near.
More dire is the looming debt ceiling, the point at which the U.S. government can no longer pay the bills it has already incurred. Raising or suspending the debt ceiling was long a pro-forma move, but Republicans now say they won’t vote for it and that Democrats should pass it on their own. Failure to lift the debt ceiling would almost certainly have a disastrous effect on the economy, including the halting of Social Security payments, a doubling of the unemployment rate and a hit on the nation’s credit rating, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics.
For Biden, the next two weeks are pivotal, and his negotiation skills will be tested.
“Coming into this, I would have assumed that the bipartisan part would be tougher,” says David Barker, a government professor and co-founder of the Program on Legislative Negotiation at American University. But the intraparty talks have peculiar complications, he says, since moderates are worried that big-ticket bills will cost them reelection, and progressives – who aren’t worried about losing their seats in heavily Democratic districts – feel they have already conceded too much.
Biden’s long experience making deals on the Hill will give him a boost, however, Barker says.
“Biden is almost a unique figure in American politics in that people feel genuine affection for him across the spectrum of the Democratic Party, though less so on the left than in the center,” Barker says. And among Republicans, “he doesn’t inspire the same sense of loathing that other Democrats do.”
Democrats across the spectrum “know this is their only opportunity,” Barker adds. “If this falls through, they won’t get another opportunity – maybe not for a generation.”
Psaki said Biden will continue to talk with lawmakers and remains confident both measures will get done.
“There’s no question there’s a lot of work ahead,” she said. And very little time left in which to do it.
