Apr 24, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers third baseman Vinny Capra (18) is unable to control the ball on a play against the San Francisco Giants during the sixth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images Here’s my list of the best MLB bets for Monday, May 19:
Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins
When you look at the preview and see one starting pitcher with a 4.75 ERA (Ben Brown, Cubs) and the other with a 5.52 ERA (Edward Cabrera), the under is probably the last thing you think of.
In his last two starts, Cabrera gave up two runs (vs. A’s) and one (vs. White Sox) in 5 2/3 and five innings. Brown gave up two (vs. Miami) and three (vs. San Francisco) in his last two, but has been pitching better on the road compared to at home this season.
Brown has a 1.59 ERA on the road and did not give up a run in his last two road starts (each six innings).
The Cubs are hitting .266 over the last week, and the Marlins are hitting .256. Cabrera has done well in his recent starts, and Brown has been great on the road. They’ll keep things under control while they are in the game. But there is no telling what will happen once they are pulled.
First five innings total UNDER 4.5 at -106Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
Colorado’s pen has a 4.20 ERA, so I wouldn’t expect it to come to the rescue.
Phillies -1.5 (FanDuel)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Here you have two teams that have been hitting the ball really well over the last week. The Dodgers have been hitting .313, and the Diamondbacks have been hitting .303. Brandon Pfaadt held the Dodgers scoreless in his May 8 start at home, but Pfaadt has been at his best at home.
On the road, he’s 2-2 with a 6.64 ERA, and teams have been hitting .302 against him. Dodgers starter Landon Knack has been at his worst at home (0-1 with a 7.00 ERA). Teams are hitting .297 against him at home.
It will be surprising, to say the least, if the final score is not over 9.5 runs.
OVER 9.5 at -102 (FanDuel)
