Detailed data from the 2020 census point to rising influence for Baldwin County and waning clout for Mobile County.
The Legislature soon will take up the frequently thorny issue of redistricting, which must be done every 10 years to ensure political districts are roughly equal in population. Those districts now are badly out of whack in southwest Alabama after a decade of explosive growth in Baldwin County and stagnation on the other side of Mobile Bay.
Mobile County did not grow as fast as the rest of the state. Baldwin, meanwhile, was Alabama’s fastest growing county in the previous decade, adding almost 50,000 new residents – roughly the size of a state House of Representatives district. Much of that growth occurred south of Interstate 10.
House District 96 in the southern part of the county, represented by retiring Rep. Steve McMillan (R-Orange Beach) has 14,562 residents more than the 47,850 ideal district. It is the most overpopulated House district in the state. Baldwin, in fact, has three of the five most overpopulated. Republican Rep. Joe Faust’s district in the Fairhope area is third at 11,683 over ideal, and House District 96 on the Eastern Shore, held by Rep. Matt Simpson (R-Daphne), is fifth at 8,323.
The county also has the state’s most overpopulated Senate District. District 32, represented by Sen. Chis Elliott (R-Daphne) is over by 33,562 residents. Elliott said his district will shrink geographically before the 2022 election.
“They will change significantly,” he said. “We will see huge changes and huge shifts in the district lines in Baldwin County. … “So, you’ll see those lines change very significantly and it will, it will be impactful in the upcoming election.”
It remains unclear exactly how lawmakers will adjust the boundaries. Rep. Chris Pringle (R-Mobile) said those questions will be answered once legislators have taken a detailed look at the state’s 253,000 census blocks, which must be put together like a jigsaw puzzle.
“We’re just now getting the numbers by census block,” said Pringle, who is the House chairman of the Permanent Legislative Committee on Reapportionment. “We haven’t really gotten a chance to go through and decipher those.”
The public will be able to weigh in on the process in a series of hearings. In the Mobile-Baldwin region, there are two – Wednesday at 9 a.m. at Bishop State’s Delchamps Auditorium and Sept. 16 at 2 p.m. at Centennial Hall on Coastal Alabama Community College’s Fairhope campus.
Pringle said it can be a headache-inducing task. In addition to conflicting requests from fellow legislators and local officials, he said there are reams of court cases. Those sometimes contradict each other, he said. For instance, he said, the courts have ruled both that states cannot consider race when drawing district lines and that they cannot deny minorities the ability to elect the candidates of their choice.
“The courts are really good at telling us what we can’t do,” he said. “But they’re not real good about telling us what we can do. … It’s so complicated.”
Adding to those complications is the fact that many majority-black parts of Mobile County are shrinking, which could make it harder to preserve the status quo of majority-black districts.
For instance, District 33 – represented by Sen. Vivian Davis Figures (D-Mobile) – is 18,508 residents below the median number. Only one other Senate district has a bigger deficit. Democratic Rep. Adline Clarke’s House District 97 in Mobile is 8,745 people below. That’s the most underpopulated House district in the state.
Elliott said it is likely that House District 64, which covers parts of Baldwin and Monroe counties, will change the most in Baldwin County. That is because incumbent Harry Shiver (R-Stockton) is not running for re-election. With no incumbent, lawmakers will have a freer hand. Elliott said most or all of the new District 64 is likely to be in Baldwin County. He said Simpson’s District 96 may give up its portion that currently sits in Mobile County.
Mapmakers have another decision, centering on Senate District 22, represented by Sen. Greg Albritton (R-Atmore). It covers part of Baldwin County, along with Washington, Clarke, Escambia and part of Monroe.
It is underpopulated and, therefore, will have to be adjusted. With Elliott’s District 32 getting smaller, one choice would be for the rest of Baldwin County to form the majority of the District 22. That could increase the chances of having two state senators who live in Baldwin. But Albritton said that would not increase the county’s clout.
“I don’t see that as a gain for Baldwin County,” he said.
Albritton said it would be better to divide the balance of Baldwin County between his District 22 and one of the Senate districts in Mobile County. That way the county would have three senators looking out for it instead of two.
“Baldwin County needs more legislative strength,” he said. “You do that by getting more people representing you.”
It is competing choices like that will fall to Pringle and others on the committee to make.
“It’s a brutal process,” he said.
At least, Pringle will not have to worry about redrawing the congressional boundaries while losing a U.S. House seat. Against expectations, Alabama grew just enough over the last decade to hold on to all seven of its seats.
“I was the happiest man in America when I found out we were keeping all seven seats,” he said.
Mobile-Baldwin legislative districts
The following shows how much state Senate and House districts are over or under the target figure. Redistricting this year will even the population totals.
House District 64
Incumbent: Rep. Harry Shiver
Overpopulated by 4,612 residents
House District 66
Incumbent: Rep. Alan Baker
Underpopulated by 1,574 people
House District 94
Incumbent: Rep. Joe Faust
Overpopulated by 11,683 residents
House District 95
Incumbent: Rep. Steve McMillan
Overpopulated by 14,562 residents
House District 96
Incumbent: Rep. Matt Simpson
Overpopulated by 8,323 residents
House District 97
Incumbent: Rep. Adline Clarke
Underpopulated by 8,745 residents
House District 98
Incumbent: Rep. Napoleon Bracy
Overpopulated by 5,266 residents
House District 99
Incumbent: Rep. Sam Jones
Underpopulated by 2,826 residents
House District 100
Incumbent: Rep. Victor Gaston
Overpopulated by 4,521 residents
House District 101
Incumbent: Rep. Chris Pringle
Overpopulated by 177 residents
House District 102
Incumbent: Rep. Shane Stringer
Overpopulated by 367 residents
House District 103
Incumbent: Rep. Barbara Drummond
Underpopulated by 6,558 residents
House District 104
Incumbent: Rep. Margie Wilcox
Underpopulated by 1,460 residents
House District 105
Incumbent: Chip Brown
Underpopulated by 3,363 residents
Senate District 22
Incumbent: Greg Albritton
Underpopulated by 7,580 residents
Senate District 32
Incumbent: Sen. Chris Elliott
Overpopulated by 33,562 residents
Senate District 33
Incumbent: Sen. Vivian Davis Figures
Underpopulated by 18,508 residents
Senate District 34
Incumbent: Sen. Jack Williams
Overpopulated by 5,523 residents
Senate District 35
Incumbent: Sen. David Sessions
Underpopulated by 2,859 residents
