And yet, Mitch McConnell is still nervous.
He’s not wrong! And there’s plenty of relatively recent history McConnell can point to as evidence of the dangers of picking the wrong nominee.
Two years later, Missouri Republicans chose then-Rep. Todd Akin as their nominee. Akin quickly disqualified himself with comments about “legitimate rape.” Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill won the general election easily.
Republicans have expressed concern that if Greitens is their Senate nominee, they could well lose a seat that, based on recent presidential voting patterns, should be an easy hold for them. But many of those same Republicans admit that they may not be able to stop Greitens from winning.
While Missouri is clearly the stickiest wicket for McConnell — and Republicans more generally — contested primaries in Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina all present some level of political peril for the likes of McConnell, depending on who the party chooses to nominate.
Looming over all this is former President Donald Trump, who has made clear that he plans to be actively involved in the 2022 primary season. Trump and McConnell are already on opposite sides of the Alaska Senate race, for instance, with McConnell supporting Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Trump backing challenger Kelly Tshibaka.
The Point: Things looks very good for McConnell and Senate Republicans. But Trump and the GOP base voters who are loyal to him represent a massive x-factor that could badly complicate the party’s math.
