Bullet point summary by AI
- The WNBA draft lottery race is already taking shape with the season still in its early stages.
- The Connecticut Sun are currently positioned to secure the best odds for the top pick, but several others could shift the standings.
- The outcome will hinge on unexpected wins and losses over the next three months, with major implications for multiple franchises.
The WNBA season has just started, but the race for the No. 1 pick is already heating up — or cooling down, if you want to think of it that way. After a 2026 WNBA Draft with a lot of good talent but no clear franchise-altering star at the top, 2027 has three players who could potentially wind up as top-10 players in the league: JuJu Watkins, Madison Booker and Hannah Hidalgo.
So, how do the current WNBA draft lottery odds look? Let’s take a look at them. If you’re not familiar with how the odds work, the WNBA uses a combined two-year record to determine lottery odds for the teams that don’t make the playoffs.
Current WNBA Draft Lottery odds
Note: Odds for the No. 1 overall pick are approximate and are taken from Tankathon, as official odds have not been released by the league yet.
|
Team |
Two Year Record |
Two Year Win Percentage |
Odds For No. 1 Pick* |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Connecticut Sun |
12-40 |
.231 |
35% |
|
Washington Mystics |
18-31 |
.367 |
24% |
|
Toronto Tempo |
3-4 |
.429 |
16% |
|
Los Angeles Sparks |
24-26 |
.480 |
10.5% |
|
Seattle Storm |
26-25 |
.510 |
7% |
|
Phoenix Mercury |
29-22 |
.569 |
4.5% |
|
New York Liberty |
30-21 |
.588 |
3% |
Surprising no one, the Connecticut Sun are the frontrunners to finish with the top lottery odds at the moment. Connecticut has been the worst team in the league this season after just barely not being the worst team in the league last season, and more than any other team in the WNBA, the Sun is in limbo. The team lost its core a couple years ago and struggled through a bad 2025 season with no relief at the end, as the team didn’t own its own draft pick. But thankfully for Connecticut, the team will have its own pick in 2027.
Well … kinda. Connecticut won’t have any picks, as the team is set to move to Houston following this season. Earning the No. 1 pick and selecting Watkins would be a great way to start building the new Comets franchise, right?
Of course, a few other teams could wind up in a fight for the top odds. Among current lottery teams, the Washington Mystics and Toronto Tempo have a chance to lose enough, though both need help from the Sun in the form of Connecticut going on a surprise win streak at some point.
Two-year combined record for teams currently in playoff picture
The playoff picture will obviously change at some point. Like, we don’t really expect the Liberty to miss, right? So just to think about how this could still shift, here are the teams inside the playoffs right now with a two-year combined record under .500.
|
Team |
Two-Year Record |
Two-Year Win Per |
|---|---|---|
|
Chicago Sky |
13-37 |
.260 |
|
Dallas Wings |
14-37 |
.275 |
Right now, neither team is in the lottery, but this is a long season, and if things happened to fall apart for either team, it’s possible they give Connecticut a run for its money. Dallas in particular is playing well enough that I’d doubt it happens, but you never know, right?
The other team to watch for is Portland. The Fire are 4-3 right now, but the roster isn’t built to win now, even if the team has played well so far. Portland having a complete meltdown and winning something like five more games for the rest of the season isn’t outside the realm of possibilities, and that would alter the race for Watkins as well.
More WNBA news and analysis:
Add us as a preferred source on GoogleFollow
