Your choice is between a centerfielder chasing 60 home runs for a team chasing a record 117 wins, or a version of Burnes on the mound who also knocks in a hundred runs for a team that’s out of an expanded playoff picture.
Before you answer, two items of business to consider:
1. We have a long way to go. The grind of the second half will test both players. The Yankees will need to save Judge’s legs occasionally. (He sat out a game in Boston on Thursday because of general soreness.) Ohtani hit .231 last September.
2. Ohtani just played the greatest month of baseball ever. From June 9 through July 9, Ohtani slashed .301/.396/.624 with eight homers and 22 RBI in 26 games and on the mound went 4–0 with a 0.00 ERA, 40 strikeouts and seven walks in 26 2/3 innings. The rest of the woebegone team went 7–17 in that month, which is why almost nobody noticed.
Ohtani’s June numbers were unprecedented.
Jim Rassol/USA TODAY Sports
Last year Ohtani won the vote easily over Vlad Guerrero of the Blue Jays. But Guerrero played a corner infield position for a non-playoff team. It’s a closer debate this year because Judge is the best player on the best team chasing historical numbers.
If bWAR is your thing, Ohtani, because of his two-way prowess, is your guy. He leads Judge 4.3 to 3.8. Judge also trails Yordan Alvarez and Rafael Devers.
And if you argue Ohtani’s two-way talent gives him an advantage every year in MVP voting … well, yes! That’s not a bug. That’s a feature. Watching someone juggling chainsaws is no less impressive when you see it a second or third time. There is nothing wrong with him winning the MVP every year not just for being a two-way player but for being an elite two-way player. There was nobody like Wilt Chamberlain in the mid-60s NBA, and he won three straight MVPs with no problem.
Ohtani might drive in more runs this year than he did last year. (He has driven in as many runners from bases as Judge: 35. Judge has batted with 32% more runners than Ohtani, 233–177). But the big difference this year is Ohtani’s pitching. He is even better this year. He is on track to pitch 151 innings with 12.2 strikeouts per nine and a WHIP less than one. Only five pitchers have ever done that: Chris Sale (2017 and 2018), Max Scherzer (2018), Justin Verlander (2018), Gerrit Cole (2019) and Burnes (2021).
Who do you have, Ohtani or Judge? We’re talking about two of the biggest drawing cards in the game. To add to the narrative, each one is on the doorstep of enormous riches. Judge is eligible for free agency after this season. Ohtani is set to leapfrog him after next season.
If Ohtani keeps thriving at the mound and at the plate, Judge is going to have a difficult time closing the WAR gap. If the Angels keep sinking, though, Judge retains the advantage of putting up his huge numbers in a more meaningful context. The debate is far from settled. It’s just getting started.
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