When watching a Detroit Lions game, background knowledge about football and the team is beneficial to the viewing experience. For example:
- The quarterback is typically the most pivotal position in football – so watch closely to see how they’re performing.
- It’s the Detroit Lions, so they’re probably the underdog. So any victory feels like a big deal.
- Again, it’s the Detroit Lions. So no lead is safe in the fourth quarter – but big deficits aren’t insurmountable either. Regardless, stick around for the end.
Elections aren’t so different. The trickle of results is more encapsulating to follow when you know what to watch for.
The questions are similar: What are the key areas that usually make a difference? What results would be considered an upset? And how much of a swing in votes is reasonable to expect in the late stages?
We’re here to answer those questions for you, with an election night viewing guide.
Here are nine things to watch to help you follow Michigan’s Nov. 8 general election results like a political pro.
1. Why Oakland County is pivotal
The top race on the ballot this fall is the battle for Michigan’s governor, as Republican Tudor Dixon challenges Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer.
Oakland County – in metro Detroit, and Michigan’s second largest county – is key for both candidates.
It’s a swing county. The last time a candidate won the governor’s election while losing Oakland County was 1982 – when Whitmer was 11 years old and Dixon was 6. Going back even further, the winner of Oakland County has won Michigan during 15 of the past 16 governor elections.
“If Republicans are running ahead in Oakland County, that makes it look like they’re going to have a very good night,” said John Truscott, former spokesperson for Gov. John Engler and current CEO at public relations firm Truscott-Rossman.
In 2014, Republican Gov. Rick Snyder won Oakland County by 57,000 votes. In 2018, Whitmer took it by 103,000 votes – a net gain of nearly 160,000.
Oakland County is a bellwether for Michigan. If one governor candidate is up big here, they’ll likely be in great shape to win the state.
(Can’t see the map? Click here.)
2. Keep an eye on Kent, Macomb counties
Two other places to watch: Grand Rapids/Kent County and Macomb County.
These are the third- and fourth-largest counties in Michigan, and also flipped from Republican to Democrat in 2018.
Whitmer was the first Democratic governor candidate to win Kent County since 1986. A big reason was her success in Grand Rapids. Schauer lost the city by 2,000 in 2014, but Whitmer won Grand Rapids by 30,000 votes, getting nearly 70% of the vote.
Macomb County in metro Detroit is also key.
Republicans are favored here, and need to take care of business. The last time they lost Macomb County but still won the governor’s race was 1970.
Republicans need to offset their Wayne County losses with victories in Macomb and Oakland counties, Truscott said.
Wayne County is larger than the smallest 58 counties in Michigan combined, so Republicans need some wins in big counties to negate Wayne County’s Democratic momentum.
3. Expect a late surge from the Democrats
The polls close at 8 p.m. Tuesday, but results will be trickling in throughout the night. If a race is tight heading into the wee hours of the morning, Republicans should be worried.
Experts say the final ballots counted are very likely to favor Democrats – for two reasons.
First: Absentee ballots are often counted last. And Democrats are voting via absentee in higher numbers than Republicans.
Second: Wayne County and the city of Detroit often take the longest for results. And that area is heavily Democratic (In 2018, Whitmer had nearly 182,000 votes in Detroit, while Republican Bill Schuette had 7,000).
(Can’t see the chart? Click here.)
“Republicans always vote in person in higher numbers. It’s kind of a cultural thing,” Truscott said. “I do think that’s changing over time, but I think that that’s still the prevalent model.”
When results trended blue late in the 2020 election, some Republicans cried fraud. But experts expect results to do this because of the order votes are counted.
2020 was the first statewide election where no-reason absentee voting was allowed in Michigan, thanks to a proposal passed by voters in 2018.
“Absentees are going to be the wild card, here. They’re just really unpredictable … wild things could happen,” Truscott said. “Unfortunately, that also adds to the speculation that these weren’t done right, because the numbers can swing wildly. But that’s just what happens.”
So don’t celebrate/panic too soon if Republicans lead early.
4. Keys to victory in the abortion rights ballot proposal
Proposal 3 is one of the hottest topics on the ballot – as Michiganders will decide whether to enshrine abortion rights in the Michigan Constitutional or keep a 1931 law banning abortion unless the life of the mother is in danger.
It’s favored to pass, with 52% saying they’d vote yes and 43% saying they’ll vote no, according to a recent poll from Cygnal.
But how close will the results mirror Whitmer’s? In the poll, 8% of Democrats said they plan to vote no.
Black support for Proposal 3 is also lower than Whitmer’s polling numbers for the demographic. About 77% of Black voters polled said they’d vote for Proposal 3 – while 85% of Black voters plan to vote for Whitmer.
So don’t expect quite as large of a victory in Detroit for Proposal 3.
Abortion-rights supporters may be able to rely on some Republican help, though. About 18% of Republicans polled by Cygnal plan to vote in favor of the proposal, and another 6% of Republicans are still unsure.
Abortion rights used to be even less correlated with political parties. Here’s how Michigan voted on statewide abortion proposals in 1972 and 1988.
5. In Detroit, the number to watch is ‘turnout’
Even in a losing effort, Democrat Mark Schauer won 92% of Detroit votes in his 2014 bid for governor.
Truscott expects Whitmer to win 92-94% of the vote again in 2022. The key isn’t the percentage – but rather, the voter turnout.
Because turnout was higher in Detroit in 2018, Whitmer gained an extra 34,000 net votes in Detroit compared to Schauer in 2014.
(Can’t see the chart? Click here.)
Detroit has nearly 508,000 registered voters. Detroit Clerk Janice Winfrey is estimating about a roughly 28-32% turnout – which would equate to about 152,000 votes. There was a 41% turnout in 2018 in Detroit.
Let’s do some quick math. Whitmer had about 94% of the Detroit vote in 2018. Let’s say she gets 94% again, but turnout is only 30%.
That’s close to 40,000 net votes lost.
For reference, Whitmer won Michigan by almost 407,000 votes in 2018 and Snyder won by nearly 130,000 votes in 2014.
“Detroit is the biggest bank of votes for Democrats,” said John Sellek, CEO of Harbor Strategic Public Affairs and a Republican communications strategist. “(Democrats) cannot afford to lose votes there in a close election.”
Why might voter turnout be low in Detroit? Truscott points to the newly drawn districts, which lump Detroit voters in the same district with suburban voters.
In turn, it’s likely Detroit won’t have a Black representative in Congress for the first time in nearly 70 years.
“The speculation is, that is hurting enthusiasm, which will hurt turnout,” Truscott said. “They don’t have anybody that looks like them or that they can identify with. There’s no motivating factor to get city residents to turn out.”
6. The balance of the Michigan Supreme Court hangs in the balance
On your ballot, the nominees for Michigan Supreme Court don’t have party affiliations next to them. A straight-ticket vote won’t pre-select any of these candidates for you.
But don’t be fooled, there’s partisanship here.
Parties nominate the candidates. Democrats nominated incumbent Richard Bernstein and Kyra Bolden. Republicans nominated incumbent Brian Zahra and Paul Hudson. Libertarians nominated Kerry Lee Morgan.
The court currently has a 4-3 Democratic advantage. Here are the most likely scenarios:
- If incumbents Bernstein (D) and Zahra (R) win, Democrats will still have a 4-3 advantage
- If Bernstein and Bolden win, Democrats will have a 5-2 advantage
- If Zahra and Hudson win, Republicans will have a 4-3 advantage
The Michigan Supreme Court has the final say on state-related matters that get appealed through the courts. Everything from abortion rights to COVID orders to voting rights have come through this court.
This is a key race for both parties.
7. Whitmer, Nessel, Benson: Which Democratic incumbent is most vulnerable?
In most polls, Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads Republican Kristina Karamo by the largest margin.
Next comes Whitmer’s smaller lead over Dixon. The tightest race is Democratic Attorney General Dana Nessel’s lead over Republican Matt DePerno.
Nessel could be the most vulnerable of “those women from Michigan.”
A Detroit News poll shows Nessel with a 44% to 43% lead, while a Detroit Free Press poll has Nessel up 48% to 42%. DePerno – the only male candidate running for one of Michigan’s top three offices – rose to fame in 2020 by claiming there was widespread election fraud.
In 2018, Nessel won by less than 3 percentage points when Whitmer and Benson won by 9.
8. The 3 U.S. House races to watch
In Washington D.C., Democrats are trying to hold onto their slim majority in the House.
Three races in Michigan will be key.
Keep an eye out in District 3, 7 and 8.
- District 3 is the Grand Rapids area, where Republican incumbent Peter Meijer was beaten in the primary by the Trump-supported John Gibbs. Gibbs will face Democrat Hillary Scholten in a new district that leans slightly toward Democrats, per FiveThirtyEight.
- District 7 is the Lansing area, where Democratic incumbent Elissa Slotkin will face Republican Tom Barrett. This new district leans slightly toward Republicans.
- District 8 is the Flint, Saginaw, Bay City area, where Democratic incumbent Dan Kildee is running against Republican Paul Junge. This new district also leans slightly to Republicans.
So essentially, what we have are three districts where the incumbent party actually has a slight disadvantage due to the way the new Congressional districts were redrawn in Michigan.
Either party could reasonably sweep all three seats.
For the rest of the U.S. House seats, expect Republicans to win Districts 1, 2, 4, 5, 9 and 10 and Democrats to win Districts 6, 11, 12 and 13. Wins by the opposing party in these districts would qualify as a major upset.
9. Who will control the Michigan Legislature?
Newly drawn districts are expected to make Michigan Senate and House races a little more competitive.
Democrats haven’t controlled the Michigan Senate since 1984 – but some pundits say there’s a chance that could change if the party does well Nov. 8.
Democrats are less likely to have a majority in the House, which they haven’t had since 2010.
If the same party can win the governorship, the House and the Senate, they gain major power. Going back to 1953, Michigan averages 408 bills approved and 10 vetoes per year when the same party controls the Legislature and governorship – but 348 bills approved and 16 vetoes per year when it’s split.
Follow along with MLive on election night for the latest results in all of these races.
MORE ELECTION STORIES:
See the number of absentee ballots turned in so far in your Michigan town
The key cities, counties that helped Whitmer swing Michigan blue in 2018
Abortion rights have been on Michigan ballots before. They failed both times.
The No. 4 issue for Michigan voters? It might sound damn familiar.
