Adam Silver has made it his No. 1 priority to reform the NBA Draft Lottery in an effort to curb tanking. That discourse reached peak frequency this season as teams bottomed out left and right in anticipation of a historically deep prospect class.
Here’s what to look forward to.
Adam Silver’s new NBA Draft Lottery rules, explained
The league is hoping to adopt a new ‘3-2-1’ lottery framework, which refers to the number of lottery balls each team receives.
The field would expand from the 14 non-playoff teams to 16 teams, including the No. 8 seeds in each conference. The Nos. 9 and 10 seeds in the Play-in Tournament would each receive two lottery balls. The loser of the No. 7-No. 8 matchup will receive one.
For teams who don’t crack the Play-in race, the odds are flattened. Every team 4-10 will receive three lottery balls. The three teams with the worst records in the NBA, however, land in the “relegation zone” — which means only two lottery balls. The goal, essentially, is to disincentivize tanking all the way to the bottom, which this proposal accomplishes.
Teams is the relegation zone have a floor of the No. 12 overall pick; every other team can fall as far as No. 16.
ESPN’s Shams Charania dropped the initial report with all these details. The proposal could undergo slight tweaks ahead of a vote from the NBA’s Board of Governors in late May, but the broad framework has “a majority of the support from teams.”
Chaos shall reign. Time will tell if this is even remotely beneficial to the NBA product, but it will make Tankathon spins really fun next season. In the meantime, SportCLT’s Dylan Jackson has devised his own simulation tool, which applies these new rules to the current lottery standings. Just to visualize the chaos ahead and give us a sense of what’s coming down the road, let’s give it a whirl and see how it would theoretically impact the current draft:
1. Memphis Grizzlies: AJ Dybantsa, F, Brigham Young
Okay. This is a fairly normal outcome. Memphis was among the most prominent tankers this season, trading Jaren Jackson Jr. at the deadline and effectively benching Ja Morant due to injury down the stretch. Zach Edey missed most of the year. Memphis just never got healthy enough to climb out of the basement.
AJ Dybantsa has emerged, more or less, as the consensus No. 1 pick in this draft. He was more productive (and available) than Darryn Peterson and he has fewer athletic question marks than Cameron Boozer. Dybantsa’s size, dexterity and explosiveness as a wing slasher offers crystal-clear visions of offensive stardom. He’s a talented three-level scorer and a better passer than he gets credit for, with unbelieveable craft for such a superhuman athlete.
2. Charlotte Hornets: Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas
Charlotte jumps up to No. 2 after winning 44 games and losing the 8-9 Play-in matchup against Orlando. This is, in theory, what the league wants: teams going all-out, making real strides toward a better future, and still getting rewarded through the lottery.
Darryn Peterson would join a talented young core with LaMelo Ball, Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller. The combined versatility of those four offensive skill sets would make Charlotte a real headache for opposing defenses. Peterson was a prodigous off-ball scorer at Kansas, but he was more of a downhill finisher and distributor in high school. He’s the most well-rounded guard prospect in over a decade. If the medicals check out, Charlotte would be dancing in the streets with this pick.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC): Cameron Boozer, F, Duke
This is an underrated storyline in all of this: teams who traded future picks — especially unprotected picks — just took on a whole new level of downside risk. Oklahoma City has 9.4 percent odds of landing in the top four with L.A.’s pick right now. Their current odds of receiving the No. 1 pick would jump from 2.0 percent to 5.4 percent. Not huge, but also not insignificant. And there’s just way more upward mobility.
Cameron Boozer was the most dominant force in college basketball as an 18-year-old. The are fair questions about his defensive projection and how exactly his below-the-rim style translates to the NBA, but Boozer is built like a tank, with incredible scoring versatility and processing skills. He’s too smart to fail. He will elevate teammates and fit into whichever role the reigning champs need him to, extending OKC’s seemingly endless window even further.
4. Atlanta Hawks (via MIL): Caleb Wilson, F, North Carolina
This new system will really favor teams in Atlanta’s situation, with ownership rights to the highest pick of two different lottery teams. The Hawks will get Milwaukee or New Orleans’ pick, depending on which lands higher. Under the new rules, that would mean a 16.8 percent chance at No. 1, compared to their current 9.8 percent odds.
Atlanta certainly wouldn’t complain about the No. 4 pick either. Caleb Wilson probably isn’t the ideal positional fit, but he’s too special a player to pass up. Atlanta can envision him sprinting the floor with Jalen Johnson for the next decade — two massive, explosive athletes at the forward position. Wilson has a few fundamentals to clean up, but he’s a hellacious defender with real flashes of downhill creation and mid-range shooting, in addition to his myriad veritcal flourishes at the rim.
5. Brooklyn Nets: Darius Acuff Jr., G, Arkansas
Brooklyn avoids catastrophe in this simulation, but these rules will impact bad teams the most — at least in terms of adverse effects. It’s already harder than ever for small markets to build through free agency or trades. The CBA severely limits financial flexibility for top spenders. The best way for bad teams to carve out a future is through a few years of hearty tanking and top prospect additions. Now that becomes challenging, if not impossible.
The Nets wouldn’t complain much about Darius Acuff, however. He’s the most productive and impactful freshman guard since Trae Young. He just completely wrecked college defenses, operating with a level of poise we rarely see from 19-year-old point guards. Acuff is an elite off-ball shooter and connector when he needs to be; he’s prolific creating out of the pick-and-roll, with a thick frame and bursty athleticism. He can captain the Nets toward a brighter future.
6. Chicago Bulls: Kingston Flemings, G, Houston
This is the first outcome that is straight-up impossible under the current rules. Chicago jumps up from No. 9 to No. 6, which is especially valuable in a deeper class like this.
Kingston Flemings probably won’t fall to No. 9. Chicago gets a new franchise point guard with stellar character traits. Flemings was a on-court leader for a veteran Houston team with tons of experience in the backcourt. He needs to become more consistent as a shooter and finisher, but he’s dazzling with ball-on-string handles, unmatched quickness and elite decision-making at full speed. Flemings gets anywhere he likes on the floor and defends with his hair on fire, an added bonus.
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