Jul 9, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Ben Rice (22) reacts after hitting a two run home run in the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images Major League Baseball convenes in Philadelphia for the Home Run Derby on Monday night.
Here are three best-bets for the annual star-studded slugfest, held for a second time amid the backdrop of Broad Street.
Most Home Runs in Round 1
With the Round 1 format now limiting every contestant to exactly 20 swings, the premium is on contact efficiency and bat speed. And St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker is much better in those areas than the betting market is giving him credit for.
Per Baseball Savant, his average exit velocity (94.2 mph) is the second-highest among Derby entrants, and his average launch angle (11.7%) is the third-lowest, a good fit for the relatively intimate Citizens’ Bank Park dimensions.
Junior Caminero probably has an even better statistical makeup for an early power show. But he’s also a second-time contestant, and likely to be a little more measured about his performance if he posts a number he feels can safely qualify.
Most home runs in round 1: Jordan Walker (+650, DraftKings)
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Longest Home Run
Junior Caminero has been absolutely tearing the cover off the ball. The Tampa Bay Rays slugger had clubbed 13 home runs in his last 18 games entering Sunday while slashing .304/.392/.899 over that stretch.
He also has the longest home run this season among the eight contenders (463 feet) and the third-longest average home-run distance. And his line-drive swing should play well in the muggy East Coast conditions of Philadelphia.
He probably should be the frontrunner here, but the home-town discount to Kyle Schwarber makes him a decent value if you shop around for a good price.
Longest Home Run: Junior Caminero (+400, Fanatics)
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To Reach The Final
Ben Rice isn’t even the most well-known slugger on his own team, playing in The Bronx in the shadow of Aaron Judge. But he has the third-highest barrelled balls rate in this field, and his Big Apple experience should make his first All-Star showing a bit easier to handle.
He also has a hot bat, slashing .359/.459/.897 between June 30 and July 11.
Experience could get the better of him eventually. But that high barrel rate is a consistent predictor of overall derby performance over the years, and he should be getting more love from oddsmakers than he’s getting.
Take him to make the final rather than to win it all to guard against a bad final-round matchup like Kyle Schwarber at home or Junior Caminero anywhere.
To reach the final: Ben Rice (+400, BetMGM)
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