Every year, we see some absolute surprises lose their job in the middle of the season. Former stars see those stars fade into nothing, and another player gets a chance to prove themselves. Sometimes those players are the next big thing, like when Jaxson Dart took over for Russell Wilson last season. Other times, it’s a team trying to make something out of a lost season, like when the New York Jets benched Tyrod Taylor for Justin Fields. The real shock came when the Miami Dolphins ended the Tua Tagovailoa tenure in dramatic fashion.
This season, there will be some surprises. Who could see their spot as the number-one quarterback quickly turn into a number two? We have a lot of evidence to say that multiple QBs are going to see themselves on that list of benched quarterbacks. These 10 names should be what you’re looking at for predicting future bench candidates.
1. Jacoby Brissett – Arizona Cardinals
Right now, it’s not kumbaya for the Arizona Cardinals and Jacoby Brissett. The veteran quarterback was really good for the Cards last season, throwing for 23 touchdowns with a career high in passing yards. While the Cardinals stunk, something positive did come out of the season. Besides Brissett’s play, we saw him help Trey McBride grow into a superstar in the league.
The Cardinals need to figure out what they want to be, but we expect their season to go under before it begins. And that usually comes with a quarterback change. Add onto it that Brissett got into an ugly contract dispute this offseason, and this is heading right towards a divorce. What are the Cardinals playing for this year?
The Cardinals also made a surprising move by drafting Carson Beck early in the second round. They seem to have high hopes for the kid, and he’s already 24 years old. The Cardinals will want to see what he can do with the ball quickly. They don’t have a lot of time to just sit on him, and if they do end up as the worst team in the league, then the situation becomes complicated for them next season. But that’s a future executive’s problem.
2. Deshaun Watson – Cleveland Browns
We’re projecting a little here because the Cleveland Browns are still technically in a quarterback competition that won’t be settled until training camp, but Deshaun Watson seems to be the leader in the clubhouse. Watson is the one making all the money and seems to have caught the glimmer in the eye of new head coach Todd Monken. Watson hasn’t been healthy or good since the Browns traded a ransom and paid a boatload of money to bring in the controversial quarterback. It’s still going to go down as the worst trade in NFL history, no matter what happens this year, but a benching seems all but likely with the status of the Browns roster, overall.
Watson has shown little to no promise in Cleveland. They have two other quarterbacks on the roster in Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, who started games last year. They also drafted Taylen Green out of Arkansas. Sanders has promise and was expected to be a first-round pick last season, but he fell to the fifth round. During his starts, there was something there, but not enough to make him the starter this season.
Watson is also coming off a torn Achilles in 2024, so the mixture of that recovery and a long layoff from football for the second time in his career spells disaster for Watson. Add in a roster that no longer has Myles Garrett and will likely pile on the losses, and we’re looking at a new quarterback sooner rather than later.
3. Geno Smith – New York Jets
It’s not going to be a warm homecoming for Geno Smith. After an awful start to his career with the New York Jets, the West Virginia University product revived his career by becoming a journeyman backup and, eventually, the starter to replace Russell Wilson in Seattle. Smith was a quality quarterback for a few years, but when the Seahawks replaced Smith with Sam Darnold, they won a Super Bowl and Smith turned into a pumpkin.
The Las Vegas Raiders moved on quickly from Smith, trading him to the Jets when it was clear they were going to draft Fernando Mendoza out of Indiana first overall. The Jets thought that Oregon’s Dante Moore was going to be there for the taking in the draft, but he decided to go back to the Ducks. So, the Jets chose to bring in a bridge.
The issue with the bridge quarterback is that they often don’t last. There’s a movement to just try a young player and see if you can catch lightning in a bottle, rather than just losing with a veteran under center. The Jets drafted talented Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik in the draft this past year, and we see him getting a start or two this season when the Jets ultimately pull a Jets.
4. Malik Willis – Miami Dolphins
This one might sound crazy since the Miami Dolphins just gave Malik Willis a $67 million contract to be their quarterback through a transition period, but we don’t foresee this working out very well. The former third-round pick revived his career with the Green Bay Packers and turned that into starter’s money.
Unfortunately for the Dolphins, Willis is still a very limited quarterback. And the Dolphins put together a very limited roster. They lost Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle from the wide receiver core. Their top wide receiver on the depth chart is currently Malik Washington, who had a career high 317 yards last season.
Willis might be a fine quarterback in the right situation, but this couldn’t be a worse situation for him to thrive. There’s nobody to stretch the field, and defenses are going to sit underneath on all passing downs. They will flood the box to stop De’Von Achane and give Willis no time to throw.
5. JJ McCarthy/Kyler Murray – Minnesota Vikings
Whoever wins the Minnesota Vikings job, whether it’s Kyler Murray or JJ McCarthy, is going to lose the job eventually to the other. Whether it’s from injury or ineffectiveness, we will see both quarterbacks starting games at some point this season. McCarthy is one of the biggest regrets a team has had in a long time, with the Vikings saying no to Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, and Aaron Rodgers to give McCarthy a chance coming off a rookie year-ending injury.
He wasn’t good last season. At points, the Vikings seemed to bench McCarthy just to protect his mentals. He wasn’t playing well, and the decision-making was making less and less sense. It was clearly a mental issue over a talent issue. Has he done enough work to overcome that? The pre-season comments haven’t helped matters based on how he’s treating competition.
There’s one possibility here that we haven’t addressed: the Vikings could trade McCarthy. If they don’t like what they see in training camp, or a team with a roster injury comes to them with a significant offer, the Vikings might wipe their hands clean and start over in their long-term QB search.
6. Michael Penix – Atlanta Falcons
That 2024 NFL Draft class is expected to be one of the best draft classes of all time. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix have proven to be the future of the position. However, there’s always a runt to the litter, and McCarthy and Michael Penix have to work much harder to avoid that label. That, or the even worse label of bust.
Penix is fighting an uphill battle. The Atlanta Falcons hired a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski, and they signed probably the best available backup in Tua Tagovailoa. The former Pro Bowler came to Falcons camp and now seems to have the edge as the starter already. Somehow, Penix fumbled one of the best offensive rosters in the NFL with his lack of accuracy.
If Tagovailoa does win the starting job Week 1, expect Penix to loom large throughout the season. Tagovailoa has had his own issues, including with injuries and especially concussions. Penix would likely get another chance to start even if Tua jumps in, but can he take advantage of it? We shall see.
7. Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The marriage between Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been mostly great, but over the past 12 months, we’re starting to see some cracks. For one, he doesn’t have a contract extension, which is odd when quarterbacks both good and mediocre are getting massive deals. He also did not play well enough to get the Bucs to the playoffs last year in the very bad NFC South. He just needed to get his team over .500 to make it to the postseason again, but he couldn’t do it.
Mayfield is looking for a new contract, and this one is going to make his last one look like a bargain. Honestly, the last one did end up being a bargain. He made an average of $33 million per season, while some quarterbacks are making between $50-60 million per season. Now, Mayfield wants to get into that stratosphere.
The Bucs are already making moves to look towards the future. Mike Evans took a deal with the 49ers while Emeka Egbuka takes his role. Bucky Irving appears to be a great running back. The Bucs added Jake Browning this offseason, a player once considered to be a future starter. Could he take on the role if Mayfield struggles again?
8. Aaron Rodgers – Pittsburgh Steelers
Just about everything Aaron Rodgers has done has mirrored late-career Brett Favre. He left the Green Bay Packers a few years after they took a quarterback in the first round of the draft. His first move was to the New York Jets, which was an overall disaster. Then, he left for a cold-weather city. Rodgers tried to go to Minnesota, just like Favre did more than a decade earlier, but he was forced to go to the Pittsburgh Steelers. After a relatively successful first year in the Steel City, Rodgers is back for round 2.
This time, he has a new/old coach in Mike McCarthy. Rodgers is 42 years old and will be 43 by the end of the season. He doesn’t look like the guy he was 10 years ago, and we’ve seen great players just lose it overnight. His numbers were very good last season (24 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions), but something looked frail when you saw him on tape.
The Steelers took Penn State star Drew Allar this year, and he might be the future of the position for them. Analysts are split on how effective he can be at the next level, but many agree he can grow into the position. He’s currently fourth on the Steelers’ depth chart, but he’ll eventually move up and could pass Mason Rudolph in training camp. Eventually, if Rodgers struggles and the Steelers are out of it, Allar could get starts of his own.
9. Daniel Jones – Indianapolis Colts
This one might feel preposterous to most, but Daniel Jones has a lot going against him in Indianapolis. For one, we’ve seen the short spurts of greatness in his past, and he’s always gone back to that mediocre player who is, at best, in the middle of the pack. Yet, with the Indianapolis Colts last year, Jones was legitimately an MVP candidate until he got hurt.
That’s the other part of this. Prior to signing a two-year, $88 million contract, Jones tore his Achilles tendon. This contract is asking him to bounce back and play like an elite quarterback around 10 months after the most devastating tendon injury a player can suffer. While the technology has improved, Achilles tears do slow down players, and recovery is not one size fits all. Jones could seriously struggle to start next season.
What if he struggles all of next season? There’s a forgotten factor here. Anthony Richardson is still on this roster. Yes, he looks like an absolute bust at this point, but what if he’s finally motivated to be great? The former Florida Gators prospect is still just 24 years old. He’s actually younger than rookie Garrett Nussmeier. If Jones struggles and Richardson hones in his talent, there’s a possibility the Colts might have something here.
10. C.J. Stroud – Houston Texans
How many times have we seen one playoff performance break a quarterback entirely? How could Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud not be in that category? His performance against the New England Patriots last season was one of the worst we’ve ever seen. Drake Maye was struggling against the Texans’ defense, but Stroud threw the ball away over and over again.
Stroud has won a playoff game in each of his past three seasons, but his stats have gotten progressively worse. Stroud’s playoff passer rating has dropped from 109.3 to 92.7 to 51.8 last season. Could last season have been a fluke? Sure, but there have been concerns regarding Stroud’s game for a while.
The Texans’ backup is Davis Mills, which is why they are still at this point on the list. This is by far the least likely situation on the list, but it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that the Texans could trade for a quarterback at some point during the season. Either way, the Texans have to figure out if Stroud is the present and the future. He’s due for a contract extension that will put him near the top of QB salaries. Before the Texans pay that, they need to be sure.
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