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Why Blue Jays are suddenly favorites as World Series becomes a sprint to the finish

This is who the Toronto Blue Jays are. While much of baseball media pronounced their World Series hopes dead after an 18-inning loss in Game 3 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, we tried to urge caution. While Toronto now trailed 2-1 in the series, every game had been tight — and if any team knew how to quickly bounce back from adversity, it was the one that had just a week ago erased an 0-2 deficit in the ALCS.

And sure enough, the Blue Jays leapt off the mat one more time in Game 4, following much the same blueprint as they did in the series opener. Like in Game 1, a big homer helped keep them afloat against a Dodgers ace, with Vladimir Guerrero delivering a two-run shot off of Shohei Ohtani. And like in Game 1, Toronto exploded against the L.A. bullpen, putting up a four-spot in the top of the seventh to turn a 2-1 nail-biter into a 6-2 win.

A World Series that felt on the verge of getting away from the Jays is now once again anybody’s ballgame, a best-of-three sprint to the finish with a title on the line. And while the Dodgers might have the star power on their side, suddenly it feels like Toronto is the team with the upper hand.

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Why Blue Jays feel like World Series favorites after big Game 4 win

Toronto bats aren’t scared of the Dodgers rotation

Los Angeles starters were the story of the postseason entering this series, with Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow overwhelming opponents all October long. But the Blue Jays got here on the strength of one of the very best offenses in all of baseball, and so far they’ve proven up to the challenge of dealing with the Dodgers’ four aces.

Sure, Yamamoto got one over on them with a complete-game gem in Game 2. Other than that, though, Toronto has hung tough, grinding out quality at-bats and eventually breaking through against Snell, Glasnow and Ohtani — who have combined to allow 13 runs (11 earned) across 15.2 innings over three starts. And now, the Blue Jays will be facing this rotation a second time through, at which point you’d have to think that they’ll feel even more comfortable and have an even stronger plan of attack.

It feels strange to say it, given the names and salaries involved, but right now the Blue Jays lineup is the one I trust most to show up on any given night. Ohtani is locked in at the plate, but he’s just about the only one: He, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith are the only Dodgers with an OPS above .600 in this series, while Toronto is getting contributions from all over the place.

Dodgers’ path to victory feels awfully narrow right now

Which brings me to my larger point. What does Los Angeles really have going for it right now? What can it fall back on? Outside of Ohtani, none of their other regulars are swinging the bat well. The minute that night’s starter gets taken out of the game, the bullpen becomes a minefield.

Toronto’s bullpen isn’t exactly air-tight either, but I trust Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez, Louis Varland and Mason Fluharty more than I trust Roki Sasaki and any three other Dodgers relievers, and they’ve also got Chris Bassitt and Eric Lauer waiting in the wings if needed. Sure, Max Scherzer doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in a potential Game 7, and who knows how Trey Yesavage will respond to the hothouse of Game 5 (and his second time facing an opponent in the span of a few days), but John Schneider has multiple different paths to victory in a way that Dave Roberts simply doesn’t.

Things feel awfully top-heavy with the Dodgers right now. The paths to victory are “multiple Ohtani homers” and/or “starter goes at least eight innings,” and if neither one of those conditions are met, they’re drawing dead. If the superstars simply take over, well, then that’s that, and there’s nothing much anyone can do. But as a team, the Jays feel like the sturdier proposition right now.

Rogers Centre will be rocking

And in case that’s not quite enough, Tuesday night’s win also guaranteed that this series will be headed back to Canada for at least one more game, where one of the most electric atmospheres in baseball will be waiting. It’s unclear just how much home-field advantage is actually worth these days — just ask the Phillies or plenty of other teams in recent postseason history — but it sure can’t hurt, and it’s worth noting that the Jays were an MLB-best 54-27 at home this season.

For a team that feeds off of collective energy, that has to count for something. And for a Dodgers team that’s in desperate need of some role players to step up, that’s a scary proposition, as we’ll soon find out just what Los Angeles is made of. Of course, any team with the talent L.A. has can never be considered too great of an underdog. As things stand, though, I’m putting my money on the Jays; they’ve picked themselves off the mat time and time agian, and at a certain point, they become impossible to resist.

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