Pacers primed for huge leap

The 2026 NBA Draft class has taken the nation by storm — or at least the basketball sickos by storm. Every incoming rookie class has the potential to transform the NBA landscape, but so few are so clearly on track to change the fortunes of multiple teams at the top of the lottery.

You probably know the marquee names: Cam Boozer, Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa. But this class goes so much deeper, and there’s every reason to expect a competitive Rookie of the Year race in 2027, preceding several future All-Star berths. Nothing is set in stone this early, of course, but it’s a fun time. For teams not in the title conversation, now is the time to tank.

2026 NBA Draft order if the season ended today

The Indiana Pacers, Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks all share equal, “best” odds to land the No. 1 overall pick at 14 percent. This is a loaded draft class up top, so there’s significant value in the No. 1 pick — not to mention the next few slots after No. 1. Despite the extreme value of these picks, however, tanking efforts are less full-throttled than we’ve seen in the past, in large part due to how flat the odds are.

Atlanta picked first overall in 2024 with the 10th-best odds (3.0 percent). Dallas picked first overall in 2025 with the 11th-best odds (2.0 percent). This was partially by design in the league office. There is less incentive to intentionally lose when it guarantees so little. The team with the worst record can pick as low as fifth, meaning the clubhouse benefits of competing hard and winning a few extra games can often outweigh the slight mathematical advantage as it pertains to a few random ping pong balls behind closed doors.

The Hawks own their 14 percent odds as a result of the Derik Queen trade with the New Orleans Pelicans, which saw Atlanta receive Asa Newell (the No. 22 pick) and the Pelicans’ unprotected 2026 first-round pick in exchange for the No. 13 pick in the 2025 draft, which became Queen.

With all due respect to Queen, who was much better than his draft slot, and who has exceeded all expectations as a rookie in New Orleans, this trade has disastrous potential for the Pelicans. If the Hawks stumble head first into Boozer, Peterson or Dybantsa with a competitive roster already in place — woof, watch out NBA.

The Oklahoma City Thunder also have three first-round picks, with the potential for four picks if Utah lands outside the top eight. The odds of OKC keeping all those picks, with 15 solid players locked up on NBA contracts (and two-ways worth keeping around, too) are extremely thin. Expect the Thunder to either trade them for future picks or package their picks to move up the board.

NBA Draft projected lottery picks with current order

You can read our full mock draft — with a simulated lottery, for full effect — right here.

How the top of the board plays out will be fascinating to monitor. Cam Boozer is the best player in college basketball, with every advanced metric pointing to him as the “best” prospect in a loaded crop. But he’s an old-school forward, lacking as a rim protector and, at times, reliant on brute force as a post scorer. Those traits don’t always translate to the NBA.

Meanwhile, Darryn Peterson has scored at an absurd rate when on the floor for Kansas. He’s the prototypical modern guard prospect, 6-foot-5 with long arms, an effortless jumper, and the ball-handling dexterity to get where he wants on the floor, when he wants. A lot of folks have Peterson as their No. 1 prospect as a result. His skill set maps more easily onto modern NBA stardom, whereas Boozer requires a leap of faith and confidence in the intangibles.

AJ Dybantsa could very well work his way into the mix, too, as a 6-foot-9 wing with unbelievable explosiveness and agility. Dybantsa frequently wins matchups on pure athleticism, but he can also change speeds, deploying stutter steps, hesitation moves and the works to keep his defender off-balance. Rarely do wings as naturally gifted as Dybantsa look so polished getting to their spots and scoring from all three levels. He’s further behind Boozer and Peterson as a defender, but all the tools are there.

While Peterson is probably the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 (and Boozer is my personal No. 1 prospect), the top pick will ultimately come down to team-specific fit. Those with more patient and ambitious front offices could talk themselves into Dybantsa. An analytically-minded front office, like Indiana, will probably lean Boozer, while more traditional, “balanced” thinkers will most easily see the vision with Peterson.

There is plenty of value beyond the “big three,” though. Caleb Wilson is almost in a tier of his own at No. 4, offering relentless defensive energy and rebounding from the four spot. Jayden Quaintance is primed to come on strong once he’s up to speed at Kentucky (the 18-year-old only recently returned from an ACL surgery), while Kingston Flemings, Mikel Brown Jr. and Labaron Philon highlight a loaded point guard class, from which there is no overwhelming frontrunner at the moment. This is a good draft for teams in need of guard help (lookin’ at Atlanta, Charlotte and Memphis as Ja Morant and LaMelo Ball threaten to follow in Trae Young’s footsteps as high-profile trade candidates).