Sunday of Week 9 had a little bit of everything. You want defensive slugfests? Denver and Houston traded blows in one of the most physical games of the year, with the Broncos eventually prevailing at the gun. You want an explosion at a fireworks factory? The Bears and Bengals combined for almost 90 points in a wild Chicago win. You want showdowns between long-time heavyweights? We had Buffalo-Kansas City Round 10, with the Bills making it five in a row in the regular season against the Chiefs.
A weekend with so many great games is bound to have a big impact on the playoff picture, so before the two primetime games get going, let’s reset. There’s more time for others to sneak in, but for now, let’s take a look at the bracket and how the postseason would shake out if the regular season ended at this point.
How the AFC bracket would look if the playoffs started with Week 9 almost in the books
Wild Card round
No. 7 Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) at No. 2 Denver Broncos (7-2)
It wasn’t pretty, but the Jags’ road win over the Raiders combined with the Chiefs’ loss at the Bills puts Jacksonville back in possession of the seventh and final playoff spot in the AFC. Their reward? A trip to Mile High to take on a rugged Denver defense.
In case I haven’t already tipped my hand enough, I don’t have much faith at all in Trevor Lawrence and this maddeningly inconsistent unit executing at the level they’d need to in order to pull the upset here. Denver’s offense doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence either, but the strides their running game has made in recent weeks moves them on to the Divisional Round.
No. 6 Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) at No. 3 New England Patriots (7-2)
Both the Chargers and Patriots won in Week 9, setting up what would be a fascinating Wild Card matchup in Foxboro. Justin Herbert against one of the nastiest secondaries around. Drake Maye against Jesse Minter’s defense. Mike Vrabel against Jim Harbaugh.
The narratives here are almost endless, but in the end, I think Maye leads the Patriots to his first career playoff win. Maye’s magic on passing downs feels like a bad matchup for a Chargers secondary that has sprung a surprising number of leaks this year, while I just don’t have enough faith in this Los Angeles offensive line to lean on New England up front and allow Herbert to avoid having to make magic against Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Co.
No. 5 Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) at No. 4 Buffalo Bills (6-2)
Yes, the Steelers did just force five turnovers en route to knocking off the conference’s top seed. But when Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t taking the ball away, they’ve had a hard time even looking like a playoff team this season. This defense simply isn’t trustworthy, and while Buffalo’s defense has taken a step back this year, I have no faith in Aaron Rodgers’ ability to go shot for shot with Josh Allen in January. Unless the variance gods have some fun at the Bills’ expense, they should have no problem moving on.
Divisional round
No. 4 Buffalo Bills at No. 1 Indianapolis Colts
I don’t want to read too much into one bad week, but it was alarming the extent to which the pressure the Steelers pass rush put on Daniel Jones totally short-circuited Indy’s league-best offense and turned him back into the quarterback we all saw with the New York Giants. Granted, Buffalo doesn’t feel like the best candidate to replicate that formula, but Greg Rousseau and Joey Bosa should have enough juice to speed up Jones’ processing. Run defense is a concern, but if Josh Allen can stake Buffalo to a lead and help take the ball out of Jonathan Taylor’s hands, I think the Bills move on.
No. 3 New England Patriots at No. 2 Denver Broncos
Two ascending teams, two second-year quarterbacks looking to prove something on the playoff stage. These are also two of the best secondaries in the sport, which will provide an awfully stiff test for both Maye and Bo Nix.
Nix will have the benefit of a stronger running game (and, to me at least, the stronger play-caller in Sean Payton versus Josh McDaniels) to help make his life easier. But he just hasn’t shown enough to trust him in this spot; Maye, on the other hand, has done nothing but deliver despite a very high degree of difficulty. In what should be a low-scoring game, give me the better quarterback and a battle-tested head coach in Vrabel to pull this out and advance to the AFC title game.
Championship round
No. 4 Buffalo Bills at No. 3 New England Patriots
The Patriots got the best of this matchup last month, coming into Buffalo and winning on Monday Night Football. But I’m taking the Bills to return the favor in Foxboro: New England’s offense is just a bit too one-dimensional, a bit too reliant on Maye creating in obvious passing downs. Buffalo, on the other hand, has so many different ways to move the ball and put up points, and I think it’s a bit too early to expect this Patriots team to keep pace. After years of knocking on the door, Allen finally kicks it down and gets to the Super Bowl.
How would things look on the NFC side?
Wild Card round
No. 7 Detroit Lions (5-3) at No. 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)
The Bucs are the higher seed and have home-field advantage here, but it’s hard to have much faith in them given just how banged up they are right now and how shaky Todd Bowles’ defense has been. Detroit’s run game should travel anywhere, and we don’t have to worry about Jared Goff in cold weather either. Unless Baker Mayfield’s weapons can come back without missing a beat, give me the Lions to advance.
No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (6-3) at No. 3 Los Angeles Rams (6-2)
The 49ers committed highway robbery in L.A. a few weeks ago. In this hypothetical matchup, though, I have a hard time picking against Matt Stafford, Puka Nacua and Co. This offense is just so dangerous when it gets clicking, and San Francisco has lost too much talent on both sides of the ball to back them here. We’re not even sure whether it’ll be Brock Purdy or Mac Jones starting this game, and which receivers they’ll be throwing to. Plus, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner are out, and Sean McVay should have a field day.
No. 5 Seattle Seahawks (5-2) at No. 4 Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)
I really want to pull the trigger on an upset here, with Green Bay showing no ability to close out close games with late-game execution and clutch play from Jordan Love. But Seattle doesn’t seem particularly suited to execute the formula for beating the Packers, i.e. running the ball downhill and keeping Love on the sidelines. Sam Darnold has been a revelation, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a star, but I think Micah Parsons and this pass rush can do just enough to slow them down and escape with a win.
Divisional round
No. 7 Detroit Lions at No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have seemingly turned a corner of late, rediscovering their running game and getting some more confident play from Jalen Hurts. This will be a fascinating battle in the trenches, but as long as Philly’s offensive line continues to play the way it has in recent weeks, give me the Eagles at home in what should be a raucous environment. Goff outdoors in the Northeast is cause for concern, and I think Vic Fangio will be able to short-circuit what Detroit wants to do over the middle of the field.
No. 4 Green Bay Packers at No. 3 Los Angeles Rams
I have way more faith in Stafford than I do in Love come fourth-quarter time, and I have way more faith in McVay than Matt LaFleur when it comes to navigating late-game situations. I think the Rams will be able to run the ball consistently here, and that should open up things for Nacua, Davante Adams and Co. in the passing game. It’s hard to have a ton of faith in this Packers defense right now, or in Love to keep pace without making a back-breaking mistake.
Championship round
No. 3 Los Angeles Rams at No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles
A rematch of last year’s NFC title game feels about right here. This time, though, I think the Rams finish the job in a way they couldn’t last January. McVay can find the weak link in Philly’s secondary, and if the Eagles aren’t able to run all over Los Angeles like they did last time around, I think L.A. could find a much more favorable game script that puts a bit too much on Hurts’ shoulders.
Super Bowl prediction after Week 9
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams
Allen vs. Stafford for all the marbles? Yes, please. Unfortunately for long-suffering Bills fans, I think the Rams are just the more complete team right now, with more talent on defense to compliment their explosive offense. Do you trust Sean McDermott to match wits with McVay? Do you trust this Buffalo defense to get Los Angeles off the field when it matters most? If Stafford is on his game, I think the Rams win it all.
