The ACC has four teams ranked in the Week 11 AP Top 25 poll, but would it shock you to realize there’s a greater chance than not that the conference only gets one representative in the College Football Playoff when all is said and done?
The first CFP rankings of the 2025-26 season are expected to be released on Tuesday night, and that’s when fans will find out where their squads actually sit in their contention for the postseason. There’s still plenty of time to rise or fall, but we’ll get a sense of who has more work to do and who the committee looks favorably on.
With the expanded 12-team bracket entering its second season, each power conference has a significant opportunity to send more than just its champion to vie for a national title. However, it seems the Big Ten and SEC are likely to dominate a majority of the slots based on how the AP voters have viewed the quality of competition so far this year.
The standard bearer appeared to be Miami at the start of the year, but the Canes lost a heartbreaker 26-20 to SMU in overtime on Saturday for their second loss of the season. That resulted in an eight-spot slide from No. 10 to No. 18 in the latest AP rankings, a fall closely mirrored by Georgia Tech, which fell from the ranks of the unbeaten at NC State on Saturday night. As a result, the ACC is out of the top 10 entirely, with four ranked teams in No. 12 Virginia, No. 14 Louisville, No. 16 Georgia Tech and No. 18 Miami.
Miami’s second loss of the year could limit ACC to one CFP representative
Miami was the one team that had the best chance of finishing the year with an impressive enough resume to guarantee a CFP berth for the ACC regardless of whether it won the conference title game. Championship expectations, a high-caliber roster led by quarterback Carson Beck and a win over a ranked Notre Dame team to start the year had the Hurricanes well on track.
However, losses to Louisville and now SMU leave them at risk of being left out entirely. With Georgia Tech suffering its first loss on Saturday to NC State, now Virginia and the Yellow Jackets are poised to meet in Charlotte for the conference championship game with Louisville not far behind.
But there’s no guarantee any of those three will enter conference championship week with just one loss. If they cannot, then it’s all but assured only the ACC champion will go to the postseason while the CFP selection committee will pick the resume of a third- or fourth-place Big Ten or SEC squad instead.
The quality of competition just isn’t there in the ACC to justify picking a two-loss non-champion, especially with the near guarantee whoever loses in the conference championship game will fall outside the top 12 in the final rankings. Tech and Virginia are both lacking in quality wins and long on iffy performances; truth be told, they’ve been getting away with it a bit for weeks before the Jackets finally fell on Saturday. And with comfortable closing schedules, there aren’t many opportunities to make noise.
Is there any chance that the committee opts for a two-loss UVA over, say, a two-loss (or even three-loss) team like Texas? The answer seems to be no. Heck, it’s more likely the Big 12 will be the non-Big Ten or SEC conference with multiple bids this year. But the same standard applies if their non-champion has two or more losses.
