Rays vs. Guardians Game 5 Predictions: Best Bets for ALCS.

So—how will Game 5 go? Is it time to ride the Rays or is Cleveland the best bet? Here are my MLB best bets for Game 5 of the ALCS:

ALCS Game 5: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians

Rays ML at -128

I initially planned on picking the Guardians ML at +106 because I saw it as a solid value play in a game where Cleveland could most certainly win. Overall, the lineup has been solid in the postseason, and Parker Messick (12-9, 2.56 ERA in the regular season) is one of baseball’s better pitchers (and certainly on the Guardians roster).

But then I took a closer look at this game.

The Guardians haven’t been great at home this season, going 41-40 SU and 37-41 during the regular season. They haven’t done any better in the postseason either (2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS). Tampa Bay, by contrast, has been solid on the road in the regular season (43-38 SU and 44-37 ATS) and playoffs (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS).

Messick has not been great in the postseason. He’s given up 7 runs (four earned) across three appearances, but only 11 2/3 innings. His longest postseason outing was last Tuesday on the road against the Rays (5 innings, six hits, 3 runs, 0 earned runs).

Tampa Bay had 11 hits in Game 4. If the lineup can keep the momentum going in Game 5, they could chase Messick early. That advantage could be all they need to get the win.

While Tampa Bay has yet to name a starter, Drew Rasmussen is in line to start. But the Guardians beat him and the Rays bullpen to the tune of seven runs. Now, I’m not saying they’ll do it again or that the Rays will dominate Messick.

However, with how both teams have been playing, it is not hard to see this game end 4-3 or 5-2 with either team winning and with the final score OVER 6.5 runs. If the line bumps up to seven runs or 7.5, I’d think twice about this bet.

But at 6.5, absolutely take the OVER.