Jun 28, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Alexandre Pantoja (red gloves) reacts after the fight against Kai Kara-France (blue gloves) during UFC 317 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images From Underdog to Favorite
When lines first opened for this rematch, Van was actually the underdog at +170 against a -200 favored Pantoja. That number has completely inverted heading into Saturday, with most books now showing Van somewhere between -130 and -136 and Pantoja sitting anywhere from +100
to +114 depending on the sportsbook. Some books even had this trading as a virtual pick’em earlier in the week, with FanDuel reporting Van at -107 and Pantoja at -113 before the market settled further toward the champion.
That’s one of the largest full-flip reversals you’ll see in a title fight, and the storyline behind it is straightforward. Pantoja suffered an injury during their first encounter, which cut the original fight short and left questions about how it would have played out at full health. Bettors initially gave the former champion the benefit of the doubt as the more proven, decorated fighter. But as fight week progressed, the market increasingly sided with Van’s youth, activity, and the fact that he was controlling stretches of the first fight before the stoppage. When a title fight moves nearly 300 points in one direction with no reported injury or camp disruption on the new favorite’s side, it typically reflects genuine sharp conviction that recent form and physical trajectory favor the younger fighter.
Heavyweight Bout Tightens Considerably
Steveson Grows Into an Even Bigger Favorite
At the opposite end of the spectrum, Gable Steveson’s heavyweight bout with Sean Sharaf has moved the other direction, growing from an already massive -1500 opener to as high as -2000 to -2100 at some books, with Sharaf’s price ballooning past +1000. That kind of movement on an already lopsided line reflects continued market confidence in Steveson’s elite amateur wrestling background overwhelming a considerably less experienced opponent, reinforcing rather than reversing the original read. Collectively, this card shows the market making its biggest statement at the very top, while calibrating smaller mismatches with steady, directional confidence throughout the rest of the lineup.
