MLB Best Bets Today: Two First Five Innings Plays For Tuesday’s Card

Happy Knicks Are the NBA Champions Tuesday! Let’s try to win a couple MLB Picks to celebrate.

Season Record 35-30-1, +2.16 Units

Pirates at A’s

A’s F5 -0.5 (+100 DraftKings)

After a week in Vegas, the A’s have returned from their future home to their temporary one in Sacramento. It’s still hot and it’s still a minor league ballpark, but it’s not at altitude so it’s just a “normal” hitters friendly venue.

For Pirates pitcher Mitch Keller, it matters little where he pitches, its been all pretty bad this year. He was kind of a steady mid 4’s ERA innings eater type as he hasn’t missed a start since 2022. But he’s had major hiccups in 2026, with a 5.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP as his K% has dipped to a career low 17.6%. He was never a bid velo guy, but he’s sitting at 93.8 MPH, also his worst ever. The estimators think this is pretty much who he is now as he has a 4.98 xERA and 4.61` SIERA.

Jack Perkins takes the ball for the A’s, and I’m pretty optimistic about his talent as evidenced by me having him on half my Fantasy teams.

He dabbled as the A’s closer and high leverage relief in general, before they started converting him to the rotation recently. His bottom line numbers on the year actually look worse than Keller’s as he’s got a 6.25 ERA, but he’s thrown way better than that. He has a 3.65 xERA and 3.28 SIERA with a near elite 18.9% K-BB%. He’s had 3 outings of 4 IP or longer and he has 17 K’s vs 5 BB’s in those, so he’s been about the same in longer work even though 4 of those innings were in Vegas. It’s a battle of two pretty good offenses, but I just think Perkins’ advantage is underpriced here, so give me the A’s.

Angels at Diamondbacks

Angels F5 -0.5 (+110 FanDuel)

Yes, the Angels are absolutely terrible.

Whatever chance they had of being semi competitive has been lost in a sea of injuries. It’s a shame because Mike Trout is healthy and productive at age 34, he just has no support.

But the Angels do have one big thing going for them tonight; Reid Detmers is on the hill. Again, try to ignore his 4.00 ERA as he’s got a sparkling 29.3% K% and a 1.05 WHIP. He’s been a bit unlucky with his low 63% strand rate.

The DBacks start Merrill Kelly and like his near namesake Mitch Keller, he’s gone from reliable vet to BP pitcher. In fact he’s a much worse version as he has just a 13.5% K% vs, 21% in his career. His velo is down to 91.8 and he’s just not fooling anyone these days. As bad as the Angels look, they have such a huge edge in the matchup that I’ll take the plunge on them here.