Ranking Spurs, Thunder and the 5 NBA teams with the brightest futures

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been atop ESPN’s NBA Future Power Rankings each of the past two years. In last year’s edition, OKC had “the highest FPR for any team since the Kevin Durant-era Golden State Warriors.”

The San Antonio Spurs likely just dethroned them.

The Spurs upended the NBA by toppling the defending champion Thunder in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. They’re the second-youngest Finals team in NBA history “based on weighted minutes played,” and they’re the first team ever to make the Finals with its two leading scorers no older than 22, according to ESPN’s Anthony Slater.

Although the Thunder fell short against the Spurs — in part because Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (calf) missed most of the Western Conference Finals — their future remains blindingly bright as well. Twenty-eight other teams would happily trade places with them right now. Just not the one with Victor Wembanyama.

With the dust still settling from the Spurs and Thunder’s epic clash in the Western Conference Finals, this is the perfect time to pore over the league’s landscape and evaluate the teams with the brightest futures.

Honorable Mention: Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have Luka Dončić and are expected to have roughly $50 million in cap space this summer. Lakers Exceptionalism wins again.

They also have two major free-agent question marks in Austin Reaves and LeBron James.

Reaves seems likely to return, perhaps on a below-max contract. LeBron is no sure thing, as next season seems likely to be his last, and he may have his eyes set on a final destination.

If the Lakers run back the same group whom the Thunder just swept sans Dončić in the Western Conference Semifinals, they won’t be long for this spot. But if they do make a major upgrade—and this is their best chance to do so cap-wise—Dončić has already proven to be both a floor- and ceiling-raiser.

The Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves both have superstars of their own, but both are facing significant salary-cap issues this offseason. The Indiana Pacers are getting back Tyrese Haliburton from a torn Achilles and Ivica Zubac from a rib injury after he played only five games following his arrival at the trade deadline, so they could challenge the New York Knicks for the top of the East next year.

But for now, this spot is the Lakers’ to lose. No pressure, Rob Pelinka.

Just missed the cut: Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Minnesota Timberwolves

5. Houston Rockets

Even though starting point guard Fred VanVleet tore his ACL before the season began, the Rockets finished 52-30 to earn the No. 5 seed in the West playoffs. Kevin Durant played only once in their first-round loss to the Lakers, who jumped out to a 3-0 series lead before the KD-less Rockets battled back and won two straight games.

VanVleet’s $25 million player option will largely dictate what they can do this offseason. They’re projected to be $21.5 million below the first apron and $34.5 million below the second apron, which matters when it comes to resigning restricted free agent Tari Eason. He’s their only major free agent of note, though.

The Rockets have a young core of Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard flanked by some win-now veterans in Durant, VanVleet and Steven Adams. If they stay healthy and re-sign Eason, they have the versatility to at least make some noise in the playoffs.

Amen Thompson improving as a three-point shooter would go a long way toward improving their viability as a legitimate championship contender.

4. New York Knicks

The New York Knicks are currently on a historic rampage through the playoffs. They’re tied for the third-longest winning streak in NBA postseason history. They very well might win this year’s championship.

If they don’t, they won’t have much room to pivot without giving up one of their core pieces.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($57.1 million), OG Anunoby ($42.5 million), Jalen Brunson ($37.7 million), Mikal Bridges ($33.5 million) and Josh Hart ($20.9 million) alone are making more than $191.7 million next season. The luxury-tax line is projected to be $201 million, while the first and second aprons are projected to be $209 million and $222 million, respectively.

The Knicks also have Miles McBride ($4.0 million), Pacome Dadiet ($3.0 million), Tyler Kolek ($2.3 million) and the No. 24 pick to round out their roster. If (when?) Jose Alvarado picks up his $4.5 million player option, they’ll already be at nearly $209 million. That means they’ll have the $6.1 million taxpayer mid-level exception to add to their roster at most.

Still, the Knicks might not need to make major upgrades, particularly if Giannis Antetokounmpo leaves the East. They blasted through the Eastern Conference playoff bracket this year, and there’s no guarantee that it’s significantly better next season.

The Knicks won’t be able to sustain a payroll this forever, but Brunson’s well-below-market deal was the key to making it all work for now. As long as they can keep that up, they should remain in the championship conversation.

3. Utah Jazz

Is it premature to put the Jazz this high when we don’t know who they’ll take with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2026 NBA draft — or if they’ll even stay put there? Probably.

But look over their collection of young talent and future draft picks, and you’ll realize it’s less hasty than you might expect.

The Jazz already have Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen and Ace Bailey under contract for the next three seasons. They also have Keyonte George, who could have been in the All-Star conversation if the Jazz weren’t actively tanking all year. He might have averaged the quietest 23.6 points and 6.1 assists per game in NBA history last season.

George becomes extension-eligible this offseason, so the Jazz need to figure out what their walkaway price is. But before they decide on George, they have to deal with Walker Kessler going into restricted free agency first.

Kessler averaged a career-high 14.4 points, 10.8 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 30.8 minutes per game this season, but he lasted only five games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. League insiders still expect him to sign a new deal with the Jazz “in the range of $25 to $30 million a year,” according to ESPN’s Tim Bontemps.

A top six of George, Bailey, Markkanen, JJJ, Kessler and the No. 2 overall pick is nothing to scoff at. If any team can slow down Wembanyama and the Spurs, it could be the one with three 7-footers in its starting lineup, including one former Defensive Player of the Year.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder

The last thing the Thunder should do after their loss to the Spurs is overreact.

No, they don’t need to trade Chet Holmgren for Giannis Antetokounmpo because he had one bad playoff series. Particularly not if it would cost them multiple key rotation players.

However, the Thunder do have a looming financial cliff to confront.

Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are about to start the 25 percent max contract extensions that they signed last offseason. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 35 percent supermax begins in 2027-28. That has rival executives hovering over the Thunder’s roster like vultures, looking to poach role players who might have priced themselves out of OKC.

Even if the Thunder do need to shed fringe rotation players such as Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins for financial reasons, though, they have plenty of depth and assets to keep a strong supporting cast in place.

Ajay Mitchell is on one of the NBA’s best contracts at only $2.85 million for each of the next two seasons. Jared McCain and Nikola Topić are on their rookie-scale deals for another two years, while 2025 No. 15 overall pick Thomas Sorber, who missed his entire rookie season with a torn ACL, is on his for another three years.

The Thunder also have the Nos. 12 and 17 picks in this year’s draft, which they could use to explore a trade up. Getting into the top four might be a pipe dream, but might they look to move up for Michigan center Aday Mara as their antidote to Wembanyama?

The Thunder have been operating on easy mode for the past two years since Chet and J-Dub were still on rookie-scale deals. That’s now over. But they’ve already been planning for this stage of their building process for years. That will become evident soon enough.

1. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have Victor Wembanyama and 29 other teams don’t. It really is that simple.

No player since LeBron James has had such obvious GOAT potential. If he stays healthy and plays 65 games in a given season, the NBA doesn’t even need to bother gathering votes for Defensive Player of the Year. No player in league history has had that type of defensive upside and can also do this.

The Spurs aren’t just Wemby, though. De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper might comprise the league’s best backcourt. The Spurs have Castle on his rookie-scale deal for two more years and Harper on his for three more years. They’re still years away from facing the same type of financial constraints as OKC will this summer.

The Spurs also have Devin Vassell and Luke Kornet locked up for three more years each—although Kornet’s salary is largely non-guaranteed beyond 2026-27—while Keldon Johnson and Julian Champagnie are on expiring contracts. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Spurs decline their $3.0 million team option on Champagnie this offseason to sign him to a longer-term deal.

Much like the 2024-25 Thunder, the Spurs are announcing to the league that they’re years ahead of schedule with their run to the Finals. Fox will not be the only player who tries to force his way to San Antonio to play with Wemby in the near future, either. The Spurs might become one of the most popular destinations for ring-chasers despite not being in a typical glamour market.

That’s the power of Wemby.

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