Ranking Blue Jays, Brewers and resurgent MLB teams by how sustainable their run is

Getting off to a slow start can be frustrating, but it is not always season-defining. For example, just last season, the Toronto Blue Jays were a mediocre baseball team at best for the first two months, but they went on to win the AL Pennant and finished two outs shy of winning the World Series.

This season, the Blue Jays were one of several MLB teams to get off to fairly disappointing starts, but they’ve played much better lately. Of the five teams that have turned their season around, which is the most likely to continue to play well, though? Let’s dive in.

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

A loss on May 8 dropped the Arizona Diamondbacks to 17-20 on the year, placing them three games under .500 for the first time since they started 0-3. All the Diamondbacks have done since that point is thrive, though, as they’ve gone 14-5 since, entering Saturday’s action with a 31-25 record. As much as I love the likes of Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo, there are a couple of reasons why I believe their hot streak isn’t likely to last.

First, the pitching remains a major question mark, particularly in the rotation. Eduardo Rodriguez has been stellar, but his 4.43 xERA is over two runs higher than his 2.31 ERA. Even Michael Soroka’s 4.05 xERA is a good amount higher than his 3.25 ERA. Merrill Kelly and Ryne Nelson have been better of late, but Zac Gallen has been a disappointment. They’re going to get Corbin Burnes back at some point, but who knows what to expect from him coming off a year on the sidelines? Second, the quality of competition during their successful stretch has been far from stellar. Look at the teams they’ve been beating.

There isn’t a single good team here. The Diamondbacks don’t control their own schedule, but does beating up on the Giants and Rockies really mean much? Once they played a team that was playing well, the Seattle Mariners, on Friday, they were walked off. Arizona has to prove it can beat good teams, and its 10-18 record against winning teams thus far suggests it has a long way to go in that department.

4. Philadelphia Phillies

With the Philadelphia Phillies sitting at 9-19, they decided to fire Rob Thomson and replace him with Don Mattingly as their manager. Since that moment, the Phillies have gone 20-9, entering Saturday’s action with a 29-28 record. They’ve gone from 10 games under .500 to a winning record in a month.

The Phillies have a 2.89 staff ERA since firing Thomson, the second-best mark in the majors. Cristopher Sanchez has been practically untouchable, Zack Wheeler has looked mostly like his ace self since returning from the IL, and guys like Jesus Luzardo and even Andrew Painter have stepped up after rocky starts. The issue, though, is I still can’t get myself to believe in this offense.

Even with their record, the Phillies are just 15th in runs scored since firing Thomson and they’re 23rd overall. Kyle Schwarber has performed like an MVP candidate, particularly since the firing, and guys like Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh have had great years, but who else can you trust? Trea Turner has really struggled, J.T. Realmuto looks completely overmatched, and even though he’s been a bit better of late, Alec Bohm has a .589 OPS on the year.

Unless Dave Dombrowski acquires a big bat, it’ll be hard to believe the Phillies can sustainably win with this offense, even with one of the league’s best pitching staffs.

3. Seattle Mariners

Not even two weeks ago, the Seattle Mariners reached one of the lowest points of their season. They got swept on Rivalry Weekend by the San Diego Padres, dropping their record to 22-26 overall. They’ve won seven of their last 10 since, though, including a walk-off win against the Diamondbacks on Friday night. Suddenly, Seattle is back at .500, sitting at 29-29 entering Saturday’s action, and leads the way in the AL West.

That, obviously, says more about the division being lackluster than it does about Seattle being anything special, but I do believe in this team. Their talent level supersedes that of the teams above them on this list.

Their rotation is still among the league’s elite when healthy, even with Bryan Woo having a bit of a down year and with the drama involving the No. 5 spot of their rotation. Their bullpen, with the likes of Andres Munoz, Jose A. Ferrer, Matt Brash and Eduard Bazardo as weapons late in games, is dominant. Their lineup has been shaky, but Randy Arozarena has had a great year, Julio Rodriguez is playing well, and Josh Naylor has been rebounding following a brutal start. Even with the ups and downs, Seattle’s lineup is sixth in wRC+. Once Cal Raleigh and Brendan Donovan are healthy, why can’t they take off?

2. Toronto Blue Jays

A heartbreaking extra-inning loss on May 12 dropped the Toronto Blue Jays to a season-worst six games under .500, but they’ve played well since, going 11-5 to get back to the .500 mark. At 29-29, the Jays are 8.0 games back of the AL East lead, but they’re in a playoff spot and are only getting better.

Sure, it wouldn’t be fair to blame all of the Jays’ struggles on injuries, but it feels as if every contributor for Toronto has missed at least some time due to injury. I mean, even the notoriously durable Dylan Cease was just placed on the IL with a hamstring injury. With that being said, the Jays are getting healthier and scarier.

Toronto already has a top 10 staff ERA in the majors despite the injuries, and while the offense has lagged behind, will it for much longer? Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is bound to catch fire, right? The same goes for George Springer. Addison Barger and Alejandro Kirk aren’t expected to be out for too much longer.

When healthy, this team is one that’ll be tough to beat. The rotation featuring Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease and Trey Yesavage at the top is as good as it gets. Even Spencer Miles has thrived in a bulk reliever role. The bullpen with Louis Varland closing games and guys like Tyler Rogers, Braydon Fisher and even Jeff Hoffman setting up has the potential to be quite good. Assuming the offense gets going, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Jays continue winning.

1. Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers weren’t a bad team in April, but they ended the month with a 16-14 record, good for fourth place in the NL Central. They had been decent, but far from stellar. May has been a different story. The Brewers have gone 18-6 this month, and they’ve lost only one series. It’s not as if they haven’t played against good teams this month, either.

If your only series loss in a month comes against the back-to-back defending champions, that’s pretty good, especially when you’ve played against winning teams almost exclusively. Will the Brewers win in October? I don’t know, they have a lot to prove in that regard. Getting there, though, with their track record and how well they’ve played, won’t be an issue.

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