We’ve seen these teams play twice in recent weeks. The games played out relatively similarly, with the Packers being the better team.
The Packers outperformed the Bears virtually everywhere in Green Bay. They consistently made big plays, and they converted their only red zone possession. Green Bay struggled with penalties in that game, and they still ended up winning by a touchdown.
The Bears ended up with an overtime win in the second game, but it was more luck than anything. Green Bay controlled virtually the entire game before Chicago kicked a field goal, recovered an onside kick, and scored a touchdown in the last two minutes of the game.
Chicago winning that second game is likely the best thing that could’ve happened for anyone who believes Green Bay should be favored here. If that ridiculous comeback doesn’t happen, the spread would be drastically wider here.
The other aspect of that second game is that Jordan Love was injured relatively early on. Malik Willis performed well, but he limited the offense a bit. Josh Jacobs was also hurt, leading to more Emanuel Wilson throughout the game.

