It’s tough to suss out which teams are real and which teams are fake during September football. Last season, the Philadelphia Eagles started the season with a 2-2 record and a rough-looking defense, and they ended the season winning the Super Bowl with the best defense in the NFL:
But, in those first four weeks, we saw that Quinyon Mitchell was awesome and Zack Baun was an all-world linebacker. Those two guys ended up being finalists for Defensive Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year, respectively.
My point is that there are question marks about teams, but we have a decent idea of which players are going to be rock stars this season. These are the guys who are relatively under the radar, but still have a shot to win a defensive award. (All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook at 1 AM on September 25, 2025)
DROY Longshots:
In the past 25 seasons, there have only been three defensive backs who have been the Defensive Rookie of the Year: Sauce Gardner, Marshon Lattimore, and Marcus Peters… who were all cornerbacks. In that same time span, there have only been three rookies who were drafted in the second round to win DROY: Shaquille Leonard, Demeco Ryans, and Kendrell Bell.
What I’m trying to say here is that the realistic longshots we’re looking at are defensive ends, linebackers, edge rushers, and maybe defensive tackles.
Derrick Harmon +4000
In the third preseason game, the Steelers’ rookie defensive tackle, Derrick Harmon, went down with a knee thing. Initially, it seemed like it was going to be a season-ender. Turns out it was just an MCL sprain (As an ACL survivor, I get to use the word “just”).
Harmon ended up making his debut in Week 3 against the Patriots, and it was promising. The most important thing he could do was play well with the rest of that defensive line, and that’s exactly what he did.
He ended up getting three pressures, a QB hit, and a sack… and he did that while he was on a pitch count. It’s just a one-game sample, but it was a good one game and it’s a long season. As he gets more and more comfortable playing with T.J. Watt, it’s reasonable to think he’ll end up playing like a stud.
Mason Graham +1800
The Browns made a hell of a decision when they traded back from the second overall pick to the fifth overall pick in the draft. They opted not to draft Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter and instead went with Mason Graham, the defensive tackle out of Michigan.
He started slowly in his first couple of games, but he had a very solid coming-out party in their Week 3 upset over the Packers. He ended up getting half of a sack, a quarterback hit, and three pressures. If he can keep building off a performance like that, he’ll be a contender for the DROY.
Another thing that helps is that offensive lines are always going to be shifting protection towards Myles Garrett, which means Graham is going to be getting a whole lot of one-on-ones. That’s a recipe for success for a rookie defensive tackle.
James Pearce Jr. +1500
It was pretty surprising when the Falcons traded back into the first round to draft edge rusher James Pearce Jr. with the 26th overall pick. It might’ve cost them a future first-round pick, but so far, Pearce looks good… except for that whole part where the Falcons just lost to the Panthers 33-0, but that’s just one game.
The main reason Pearce is a reasonable long shot is that he has the most quarterback pressures (7) of any rookie edge rusher. He’s only logged half a sack, but ideally, if he keeps getting in the backfield, those sacks will come.
Drew Mukuba +3500
Drew Mukuba goes against everything that I said earlier: He’s not a first-round draft pick, and he’s not in the front seven. The Eagles drafted him in the second round, and he’s a safety (the last time a safety won was in 1990).
On top of that, he’s only been getting playing time when the Eagles are in Nickel. Fortunately, that happens a whole lot, but it does mean that he hasn’t been getting a full workload.
However, Mukuba’s been making splashes with that limited playing time, specifically in the Week 2 game against the Chiefs. He got punked a few times by Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but Vic Fangio also brought him on a safety blitz (which connected), and the dude also had a fourth-quarter interception on a would-be touchdown pass.
If sacks are the most important thing for the DPOY, and getting turnovers is second, then Mukuba is checking all of the boxes.
Also, there’s a chance I just included him on this list because, as an Eagles guy, he’s awesome to watch.
DPOY Longshots:
There’s been a little more variance in the position that wins the Defensive Player of the Year over the past 25 years. For the most part, it’s either been an edge rusher, a defensive back who played out of his mind for four straight months, or Aaron Donald.
When I’m looking at long shots here, I’m going for elite DBs and young defensive linemen (or the guys that benefit from them).
Derwin James Jr. +7500
Is Derwin James the best safety in the NFL? Technically, probably. He’s making all kinds of moves as the Chargers’ big nickel. The dude is constantly making plays and finding himself near the ball. So far this season, he’s had two passes defended, five tackles for losses, and a sack.
It’s very impressive and incredibly fun to watch. A lot of times, the best defensive backs are the ones who never get thrown at. James is constantly putting himself in a position to make a play on the ball or to make a tackle… that’s not always the case for nickel backs.
Backing Derwin James Jr. to be the DPOY is probably one of the more fun decisions you can make. The dude is a missile.
Jalen Carter +6000
Jalen Carter hasn’t had the best start to the season. In Week 1, Dak Prescott coerced Carter to spit on him, which got Carter kicked out of the game before he was able to play a single snap.
In the two weeks after that, Carter has looked like he’s been dealing with some kind of injury, and he might be. He missed a good chunk of training camp dealing with a shoulder thing, and now that we’re watching him actually play, it doesn’t look like the game-wrecking Jalen Carter that everyone knows and loves.
That being said, at any moment, he can flip that switch and set up a residency in a quarterback’s facemask. If and/or when that happens, it’s going to be super clear that he’s one of the top three defensive tackles in the NFL.
If he’s going to be the DPOY, that switch is going to have to get flipped soon.
Jared Verse +2000
Jared Verse is a maniac. Last year, we all saw a glimpse of what he was capable of during his Defensive Rookie of the Year campaign. If he’s able to build off of that for his second season, he’s going to be an absolute wrecking ball.
He’s started pretty quickly. In Week 3 against the Eagles, he had a mega-huge hit-stick forced fumble on Jalen Hurts. Now, that was against backup right tackle Matt Pryor and not Lane Johnson, but the tackles he’s going to rush against are going to be closer to Pryor than they would Johnson.
Another problem is that in the past 25 years, there have only been three players who have been both a DROY and a DPOY: Luke Kuechly, Aaron Donald, and Nick Bosa… and Kuechly was the only player to be the DROY and the DPOY in consecutive years.
If you think that Verse has the potential to have a Luke Kuechly-adjacent start to his career, you can toss a $50 bill down to win a $1,000 bill.
Rashan Gary +5000
When the Packers traded for Micah Parsons, their pass rush got a whole lot better. Not only does adding a generational talent automatically bump up the unit’s production, but it also makes everyone else’s job approximately 10,000 times easier.
Rashan Gary falls in the category of ‘guys who benefit a whole lot because they play with a future Hall of Famer.’ Last season, Gary had nine tackles for losses, a pressure rate of 13.4%, 15 QB hits, and nine sacks. Through three weeks this season, he has four TFLs, a pressure rate of 13.6%, seven QB hits, and a league-leading 4.5 sacks.
That’s a crazy increase in efficiency. If he can keep that up, he’s going to sneak his way right up into the top three DPOY candidates.
