An even older potential 2024 rematch is shaping up quite differently. This is now an issue that cuts significantly against President Biden, and it has been trending in that direction for a while.
A new Washington Post-ABC poll this weekend spotlighted this better than anything to date. While 54 percent said Trump had the mental sharpness it takes to effectively serve as president, just 32 percent said the same of Biden. The split was even bigger on physical health, with 63 percent saying Trump passed their test and just 33 percent saying Biden did.
Independents were significantly more likely to see Trump as being both mentally and physically fit, with only around 3 in 10 independents saying Biden was either of those things.
And while fewer than half said Trump, 76, was too old to be president, about 7 in 10 said the same of Biden, 80.
This is one poll, and it’s a poll that’s less friendly overall to Biden than others have been recently. But it’s hardly the only one to show this emerging split.
- The same poll previously showed a significant decline on the mental sharpness question for Biden. While 51 percent said Biden had the mental sharpness to be president in May 2020, that dropped to 40 percent in February 2022 before dropping to 32 percent today.
- A Pew Research Center poll last month also showed 68 percent said the phase “mentally sharp” didn’t describe Biden very well — up from 46 percent in March 2021. For comparison’s sake, fewer than half also said the same of Trump on the eve of the 2020 election.
- A Fox News poll in October showed 40 percent said Biden had the mental soundness to serve effectively as president — lower than at any point in Trump’s presidency.
- And an NBC News survey in January showed about twice as many Americans gave Biden poor marks as positive ones on having the necessary mental and physical health to be president. Just 28 percent gave him either a 4 or a 5 rating out of 5; but 54 percent gave him a 1 or a 2. That 26-point negative split was up from 17 points a year before. Only 13 percent gave Biden the highest rating.
That poll also reinforced something from the other polling: that this is likely to be one of Biden’s biggest liabilities.
In that poll, these were Biden’s highest negative numbers among seven issues tested, including trustworthiness, likability and knowledge to serve as president. Similarly, the Pew poll tested six issues; this one was Biden’s second-worst, behind his ability to inspire.
Importantly, this is now one of the rare personal traits — as opposed to policy positions — on which Trump has a clear advantage with the American people.
The logical question from there is how much it matters. It will be tempting for Democrats to dismiss the import of this issue. Yes, even many left-leaning Americans express concern about this and don’t want Biden to run again, but they’ll likely close ranks behind him if he becomes the party’s nominee again. The 2020 election was in large part about the left rallying behind a candidate whom they didn’t necessarily love because the alternative was Trump. To the extent that same alternative looms in 2024, and it’s a 78-year-old man, perhaps that papers over this problem somewhat.
But the pandemic-era 2020 campaign also allowed for a more carefully crafted one with fewer in-person interactions. Americans have now gotten to see a healthy dose of Biden in action as president — though he still rarely does news conferences — and there will be a greater premium on a public presence as the 2024 election nears.
And for whatever reason, that soon-to-be-78-year-old alternative doesn’t suffer the same liability on these issues right now. Despite making tens of thousands of false and misleading claims, regularly sending off bizarre ALL CAPS social media missives and running a chaotic and sometimes seemingly aimless administration, he has a sizable advantage on the issue of mental sharpness.
Democrats don’t want to have a conversation about all of that right now, for obvious reasons. They’d rather rally behind an incumbent president and foreclose a serious and potentially damaging primary challenge. But it’s not going to be something they will be able to play off forever.
