“I don’t buy that the race is four points.”
That opinion, expressed by Christopher Mann, a political science professor at Skidmore College, is representative of local political scientists’ reactions to recent polling that appeared to show a tightening governor’s race in New York.
For their part, state Republicans are touting a poll by The Trafalgar Group released last weekend and showing just a four-point lead for Gov. Kathy Hochul, as proof that U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin is running a competitive race.
“This tracks with what we’ve seen consistently and what we’ve believed,” said Nick Langworthy, chairman of the New York Republican State Committee. “This is a tight, tight race.”
Political science professors and pollsters say there are several reasons why they don’t think the governor’s race is as tight as the recent poll suggests, including the fact that no other polling has returned results showing this close of a race. In fact, an Emerson College poll released Friday showed the race at 15 points in favor of Hochul. In addition, political scientists said they don’t believe much has changed in the race since polling over the summer showed the contest as being far less competitive.
“If you had another poll coming in showing similar results, then one should be aware of the possibility of an upset. But at this point, I think it’s very remote,” said Clifford Brown, the Robert Porter Patterson Professor of Government at Union College. “I’m not aware of any earth-shattering events in the last two weeks that would make a huge change.”
FiveThiryEight’s polling average of the race on Friday showed Hochul up more than 16 points. A Republican-funded poll in August had the race at eight points, but Siena College and Emerson College polls in July showed the race at 14 and 16 points in favor of the governor. A SurveyUSA poll in August had the race at +24 in favor of Hochul.
The Trafalgar Group poll, conducted Aug. 31 to Sept. 1, shows Hochul leading Zeldin by just 47.8% to 43.4% based on 1,091 respondents, with a 2.9% margin of error. More than half of the respondents were Democrats (53.6%), more than a quarter were Republicans (27.5%) and the remainder had no major party affiliation, according to Trafalgar.
Polling questionnaires were conducted via a mix of live calls, integrated voice response, text messages, emails and two “proprietary digital methods we don’t share publicly,” according to Trafalgar.
David Turner, director of Communications at the Democratic Governors Association, dismissed the Trafalgar poll as partisan.
“I attribute it to a desperate attempt by a failing campaign to use a Trump-associated pollster to manufacture a close race in order to raise enough money to be relevant,” Turner said. “I don’t think it’s going to work.”
The Trafalgar Group’s senior strategist and pollster is Robert Cahaly, who previously served on the staff of Republican campaigns, including as a regional political director for Dole/Kemp presidential campaign in 1996, according to Cahaly’s bio on The Trafalgar Group website. The polling firm gained attention after correctly predicting Donald Trump’s victory in 2016.
State Republicans believe Hochul is vulnerable, saying New Yorkers are upset with everything from bail reform to the economy.
“People are at their breaking point,” Langworthy said. “This is the year people stop voting against their own self-interest in their state and stop voting on blind party affiliation and toward solutions and change.”
But pollsters, professors and Democrats say Republicans are fighting an uphill battle in the state, where the last Republican governor, George Pataki, left office in 2006.
“For a Republican to be within four points in New York state, where there are more than twice as many Democrats as Republicans, where there are more independents than there are Republicans, Zeldin would have to be getting a sizable share of the Democratic vote and then presumably a majority share of the independent vote,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “To date, we have not seen anything to indicate that.”
Greenberg expects Siena to be out with a new poll later this month.
New York has 6.4 million Democrats, 2.8 million Republicans and nearly 3 million unaffiliated registered voters, according to the state Board of Elections’ enrollment numbers released in February. In the 2018 governor’s race, the state voted for Democrat Andrew Cuomo over Republican Marc Molinaro, 3.6 million to 2.2 million.
Still, during a midterm election, when the minority party’s voters are traditionally more motivated, it’s possible a candidate like Hochul, who has never run a statewide race at the top of the ticket, could be vulnerable, political scientists say. However, the national climate has changed since the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, and recent election results – including Democrat Pat Ryan’s victory in a special election in the 19th Congressional District – point to momentum for Democrats, they say. That’s why Mann, the Skidmore professor, said he is anticipating strong turnout on both sides.
“[Democrats] are fired up about Dobbs, there have been some policy wins, the concerns about the economy are ebbing. So I think Democratic turnout will be high. And I think Republican turnout will be high because they are mad at the Democrats who are in power,” Mann said. “General trends point to pretty decent turnout.”
If Hochul’s campaign believes the race is tight, expect to see more ads around New York City, where the Democrat may attempt to motivate the party’s base to turn out, Mann said. In the Capital Region, Hochul may run more negative ads if the governor is worried about the tight race, Mann said.
For now, Democrats are expressing confidence.
“I can say with the highest degree of confidence that Kathy Hochul is going to serve another four years as governor after she wins this race in November,” said Turner, of the Democratic Governors Association. He said his confidence comes from Hochul’s record as governor, her stance on issues like abortion and guns, as well as the fact that Zeldin has campaigned with Trump – a move Turner doesn’t expect plays well with the average New York voter. In 2020, the state voted 5.2 million to 3.2 million in favor of President Joe Biden.
Turner wouldn’t comment on specific fundraising allocations to the New York governor’s race, but he said: “I think Kathy Hochul is running a tremendous race and has been a tremendous governor. She’s going to be just fine.”
Yet, as Mann reminded, the election is roughly two months away. “That’s an eternity in political time.”
Andrew Waite can be reached at [email protected] and at 518-417-9338. Follow him on Twitter @UpstateWaite.
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