Will Folarin Balogun play against Belgium? What’s at risk for USA if he does

United States striker Folarin Balogun is permitted to play in the Americans’ round of 16 showdown against Belgium on Monday night in Seattle — at least for now. But will he? That’s another question entirely, one that sports fans around the world want answered as we wait to see how head coach Mauricio Pochettino’s starting XI will shake out.

Folarin Balogun availability update: USMNT star cleared to play vs. Belgium

When Balogun was issued a straight red card via controversial VAR review in the second half of the USMNT’s round of 32 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina, it seemed settled that he would be suspended for the team’s next match — robbing them of their most dangerous scoring threat. But then, remarkably, FIFA changed its mind, announcing that his one-match suspension had been suspended for one year.

It’s a decision with some precedent; Portugal star Cristiano Ronaldo, for example, was able to play in his team’s first two matches at this World Cup only after FIFA suspended part of his three-match suspension for a red card given during qualifying. But it nonetheless touched off a worldwide controversy, as fans cry foul and Belgium’s soccer federation pursues every possible avenue of appeal.

The U.S. has yet to offer any indication of whether Balogun will play, much less start, on Monday night, with Pochettino celebrating FIFA’s reversal but refusing to tip his hand. Obviously having him in the lineup gives the Americans their best chance of reaching the quarterfinals for the first time since 2002. But this decision isn’t as simple as it seems, as the USMNT could be putting this run at risk if Belgium’s Hail Mary prayer is answered.

Folarin Balogun’s eligibility status: Belgium protest looms

Belgium first attempted to appeal the decision to FIFA directly, only to have that challenge promptly slapped down, the appeal committee deeming their request “inadmissible” given that the Royal Belgian Football Association (RBFA) was not one of the relevant parties in the matter.

So, is the matter settled? Not exactly. Belgium had one more lever to pull, filing a claim with the Court of Arbitration for Sport’s Ad Hoc Division — a panel set up exclusively for this year’s World Cup and designed to issue quick decisions on matters of eligibility. You might know the CAS from any of a number of international doping cases, most of which have involved the Olympics. But they have jurisdiction over the World Cup as well.

Once Belgium’s claim is filed, the Ad Hoc Division will appoint three arbitrators from their global panel, which will have 24 hours to make a decision one way or the other. That means we almost certainly won’t have a ruling before kickoff at 8 p.m. ET on Monday night. But it does mean that, if the U.S. chooses to play Balogun and the CAS then rules him ineligible afterward, the USMNT would forfeit the match and Belgium would advance regardless of the result on the field.

Of course, history tells us that’s pretty unlikely. The CAS is as ethically sketchy an institution as FIFA, and they very rarely buck the international federations from whom they derive their authority — and, crucially, their money. Still, it does introduce at least some risk as Pochettino gets set to make his final decision regarding one of his best players.

USA starting XI vs. Belgium: With and without Folarin Balogun

What might the U.S. XI look like with and without Balogun? The former is a pretty easy question to answer, as Pochettino has gone with largely the same lineup throughout this tournament so far. The formation has been tweaked, but for the most part the components have remained constant: Balogun and Christian Pulisic up top with Weston McKennie, Malik Tillman and Tyler Adams in central midfield, Sergino Dest and Antonee Robinson on the wings and Tim Ream, Chris Richards and Alex Freeman at the back. That will almost certainly be the case again on Monday if Balogun does indeed play.

What about if Balogun sits, either out of caution or because the CAS delivers its ruling in time? Pochettino would have several options, though there is no like-for-like replacement for a player who is far and away the best pure striker on the American roster. The U.S. could bring on someone like Ricardo Pepi or Gio Reyna, putting them on the wing with someone like Tillman and asking Pulisic to play a false nine role (essentially a striker who plays more like a midfielder). Or they could bring on a more traditional striker like Haji Wright and keep things largely the same:

Wright, who just helped Coventry City earn promotion to the Premier League this season, has shown plenty of flashes in his international career. He hasn’t been as in favor during this tournament, but he has the big body to deliver strong hold-up play and can be a powerful finisher. He’s not Balogun, but then again, no one is — which is why the smart money is on No. 20 playing for the Stars and Stripes on Monday.